PERSAINGAN EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA DI PASAR ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY (Pengukuran Daya Saing dan Perilaku Harga

BUDI WIJAYA KUSUMA, Dr. Jangkung Handoyo Mulyo., M.Ec ; Prof. Dr. Ir. Masyhuri

2016 | Tesis | S2 MANAJEMEN AGRIBISNIS

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui daya saing dan perilaku harga kopi Indonesia di pasar Asean Economic Community. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder, dalam kurun waktu 1986 – 2013. untuk mengetahui perilaku harga kopi digunakan data harga kopi arabika dan kopi robusta mulai dari Mei 2013 – Mei 2016. Data diperoeh dari dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), dan United Nations COMTRADE Statistic. Data harga kopi Indonesia diperoleh dari BAPPEBTI (Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi). Analisis daya saing kopi dilakukan dengan menghitung nilai Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), nilai Comparative Export Performance (CEP), dan nilai Market Share Index (MSI). Analisis perilaku harga kopi arabika dan kopi robusta menggunakan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Vietnam memiliki keunggulan komparatif dibanding negara pengekspor kopi lainnya di ASEAN; Vietnam saat ini mampu menguasi pangsa pasar kopi Indonesia di ASEAN. Meskipun Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara pengekspor kopi di ASEAN, Indonesia dinilai memiliki daya saing namun dengan kecenderungan semakin menurun dari tahun ke tahun. Model ARIMA perilaku harga kopi robusta Indonesia adalah model ARIMA (1, 1, 6), artinya harga kopi robusta dipengaruhi oleh harga kopi 6 bulan sebelumnya. Model ARIMA perilaku harga kopi Arabika Indonesia adalah model ARIMA (1, 1, 7), artinya harga kopi robusta dipengaruhi oleh harga kopi 7 bulan sebelumnya. Peramalan harga kopi Indonesia mengalami kenaikan sesuai dengan pola data harga sebelumnya, sesuai dengan perkembangan nilai RCA, CEP, MSI. Kata Kunci: Kopi Indonesia, Asean Economic Community, Analisis Daya saing, Analisis Perilaku Harga

This study aims to find out the competitiveness and price behavior of Indonesia's coffee in Asean Economic Community market. The data used in this research is secondary data, in the period 1986 - 2013. to determine the price behavior of price data used coffee arabica and robusta coffee from May 2013 - May 2016. Data time series Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and United Nations COMTRADE Statistics. Data obtained from the Indonesian coffee prices BAPPEBTI (Badan Pengawas Perdagangan Berjangka Komoditi). Analysis of the coffees competitiveness is done by calculating the value of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), the value of Comparative Export Performance (CEP), and the value of Market Share Index (MSI). Analysis of price behavior arabica and robusta coffee using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results showed that Vietnam has an excellence competitivenes compared to other coffees exporter countries in ASEAN; Vietnam currently controls the Indonesians coffee market in ASEAN. Although Indonesia is one of the coffee exporter countries in ASEAN, Indonesia is considered to have competitiveness but with a tendency to decrease from year to year. ARIMA models Indonesian robusta coffee price behavior is ARIMA (1, 1, 6), meaning that the price of robusta coffee prices are influenced by the previous 6 months. ARIMA model the behavior of Indonesia's Arabica coffee prices is ARIMA (1, 1, 7), which means that the price of robusta coffee prices are influenced by the previous 7 months. Forecasting the price of coffee in Indonesia has increased in accordance with the data pattern of the previous price, according to the development value of RCA, CEP, MSI. Keywords: Indonesian Coffee, Asean Economic Community, Analysis of Competitiveness, Analysis of Price Behavior

Kata Kunci : Kopi Indonesia, Asean Economic Community, Analisis Daya saing, Analisis Perilaku Harga, Indonesian Coffee, Asean Economic Community, Analysis of Competitiveness, Analysis of Price Behavior