Mitigasi Risiko Pasokan Jagung Musiman: Analisi Skenario pada PT Cahaya Mario Group

Syawary, Prof. Nurul Indarti, S.E., Sivilokonom, Cand.Merc., Ph.D

2026 | Tesis | S2 Manajemen

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tingkat eksposur risiko pasokan jagung musiman, mengidentifikasi alternatif strategi mitigasi, serta menentukan strategi mitigasi yang paling layak bagi PT Cahaya Mario Group berdasarkan analisis biaya-manfaat. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan studi kasus dengan pengumpulan data melalui wawancara semi-terstruktur, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), dan analisis dokumen dari lima informan kunci serta data historis perusahaan periode Januari 2021-Desember 2025. Analisis dilakukan melalui identifikasi dan penilaian risiko menggunakan matriks probabilitas-dampak 5 x 5, analisis skenario, perhitungan Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), analisis biaya-manfaat (Cost-Benefit Analysis/CBA), dan analisis sensitivitas terhadap tiga alternatif strategi mitigasi, yaitu multisourcing, penguatan kontrak mutu pemasok, dan investasi mesin pengering jagung.

Hasil penelitian mengidentifikasi sebelas kejadian risiko pasokan jagung musiman, dengan lima kejadian risiko berada pada kategori prioritas tinggi dan kesenjangan penanganan terbesar terdapat pada tahap pengadaan bahan baku. Evaluasi terhadap ketiga alternatif strategi menunjukkan bahwa investasi mesin pengering jagung merupakan strategi yang paling layak secara ekonomi dengan net benefit tahunan sebesar Rp1.861.327.451, Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) sebesar 7,52, payback period sekitar 6,2 bulan, serta margin of safety sebesar Rp1.344.083.248 dibandingkan alternatif terbaik berikutnya. Hasil tersebut tetap konsisten pada analisis sensitivitas menggunakan empat kategori curah hujan. Dengan demikian, investasi mesin pengering jagung direkomendasikan sebagai strategi mitigasi utama risiko pasokan jagung musiman di PT Cahaya Mario Group, sedangkan multisourcing dapat dipertimbangkan sebagai strategi pendukung.

This study aims to analyze the level of seasonal corn supply risk exposure, identify alternative mitigation strategies, and determine the most economically feasible mitigation strategy for PT Cahaya Mario Group based on a cost-benefit analysis. A case study approach was employed using data collected through semi-structured interviews, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), and document analysis involving five key informants, supported by the company historical data from January 2021 to December 2025. The analysis consisted of risk identification and assessment using a 5 x 5 probability-impact matrix, scenario analysis, Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), and sensitivity analysis to evaluate three mitigation alternatives: multisourcing, strengthening supplier quality contracts, and investing in a corn dryer machine.

The results identified eleven seasonal corn supply risk events, of which five were classified as high-priority risks, with the largest risk treatment gap occurring at the raw material procurement stage. The evaluation showed that investing in a corn dryer machine was the most economically feasible strategy, generating an annual net benefit of IDR 1,861,327,451, a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 7.52, a payback period of approximately 6.2 months, and a margin of safety of IDR 1,344,083,248 compared with the next-best alternative. These findings remained consistent under sensitivity analysis using four rainfall categories. Therefore, investing in a corn dryer machine is recommended as the primary mitigation strategy for seasonal corn supply risk at PT Cahaya Mario Group, while multisourcing may serve as a complementary strategy.

Kata Kunci : manajemen risiko rantai pasok, mitigasi risiko, pasokan jagung musiman, analisis biaya-manfaat, peternakan ayam petelur.