Faktor Domestik dan Regional Detected Trafficking Victims di ASEAN-5: Pendekatan Spatial Lag of X (SLX)

Nur Aini Agustin, Rimawan Pradiptyo, S.E., M.Sc., Ph.D,

2026 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

Perdagangan manusia tetap menjadi kejahatan transnasional yang mendesak di Asia Tenggara. Penelitian ini menyelidiki asosiasi antara kedatangan wisatawan internasional (international tourist arrivals), efektivitas pemerintah (government effectiveness), dan korban perdagangan manusia yang terdeteksi (detected trafficking victims) di lima negara ASEAN (2007–2020), termasuk efek moderasi dan spatial spillover. Dengan menggunakan estimator PPMLHDFE dengan model Spatial Lag of X (SLX) dan matriks bobot KNN=1, analisis ini memperhitungkan overdispersion, efek tetap (fixed effects), dan ketergantungan spasial (spatial interdependence). Tiga temuan utama muncul. Pertama, international tourist arrival berasosiasi positif dengan detected trafficking victims, sementara government effectiveness menunjukkan asosiasi negatif. Kedua, interaksi antara international tourist arrival dan government effectiveness bernilai negatif, mengindikasikan bahwa institusi yang lebih kuat melemahkan asosiasi antara pariwisata dan perdagangan manusia. Ketiga, spatial spillover dari negara tetangga terbukti ada: spillover government effectiveness berasosiasi negatif dengan detected trafficking victims, sementara spillover international tourist arrival berasosiasi positif. Pola distance decay yang jelas memvalidasi bahwa spillover paling kuat terjadi di antara negara tetangga terdekat. Uji ketahanan (robustness checks) menggunakan spatial lags dan spesiasi parsimoni yang mengeluarkan dua variabel kontrol (net migration dan population) mengonfirmasi stabilitas temuan ini. Hasil penelitian ini menekankan pentingnya kerja sama regional dan penguatan kelembagaan untuk mengurangi risiko perdagangan manusia yang terkait dengan mobilitas internasional.

Human trafficking remains a pressing transnational crime in Southeast Asia. This study investigates the associations between international tourist arrivals, government effectiveness, and detected trafficking victims in five ASEAN countries (2007–2020), including moderating and spatial spillover effects. Using PPMLHDFE with a Spatial Lag of X (SLX) model and KNN=1 weight matrix, the analysis accounts for overdispersion, fixed effects, and spatial interdependence. Three findings emerge. First, international tourist arrivals are positively associated with detected trafficking victims, while government effectiveness shows a negative association. Second, the interaction between international tourist arrivals and government effectiveness is negative, indicating that stronger institutions weaken the international tourist arrival-detected trafficking victims association. Third, spatial spillovers are evident: government effectiveness spillovers are negatively associated with detected trafficking victims, while international tourist arrival spillovers are positively associated. A clear distance decay pattern validates that spillovers are strongest among nearest neighbors. Robustness checks using spatial lags and a parsimonious specification excluding two control variables (net migration and population) confirm the stability of these findings. The results underscore the need for regional cooperation and institutional strengthening to mitigate trafficking risks associated with international mobility.

Kata Kunci : human trafficking; tourism; governance; spatial spillovers; PPMLHDFE; ASEAN