Pengembangan Model Persediaan Biomassa untuk Program Cofiring PLTU dengan Mempertimbangkan Faktor Stochastic Supply dan Degradasi Biomassa

Muhammad Hafiz Choirul Amri, Prof. Ir. Nur Aini Masruroh, S.T., M.Sc., Ph.D., IPU., ASEAN.Eng.

2026 | Skripsi | TEKNIK INDUSTRI

Program cofiring biomassa pada PLTU merupakan strategi transisi energi Indonesia untuk mengurangi ketergantungan batubara dan mendukung target Net Zero Emissions 2060, namun menghadapi tantangan stochastic supply dan variabilitas kualitas biomassa. Penelitian ini membangun model pengendalian persediaan biomassa sawdust yang mengintegrasikan degradasi kualitas dan ketidakpastian pasokan, dengan studi kasus PLTU Rembang (630 MW, cofiring 7%) dan PLTU Suralaya 1-7 (3.400 MW, cofiring 2%). Ketidakpastian pasokan dimodelkan dengan pendekatan multiplicative proportional yield berdistribusi Beta, menghasilkan rata-rata yield rate 0,905 (Rembang) dan 0,576 (Suralaya 1-7). Kebutuhan biomassa tahunan sebesar 187.920 ton (Rembang) dan 338.225 ton (Suralaya 1-7), terkoreksi menjadi kuantitas pemesanan 208.591 ton dan 599.370 ton per tahun. Safety stock yang dibutuhkan 544 ton dan 1.090 ton. Estimasi lahan menunjukkan bulking silo paling efisien (4.957 m² dan 2.479 m²), dibanding manual stockyard (10.500 m² dan 6.000 m²) serta natural silo (11.977 m² dan 7.826 m²), keduanya masih dalam batas lahan tersedia (±14.300 m² dan ±9.200 m²). Simulasi Monte Carlo menghasilkan service level 90,0?n 87,3%, memenuhi target minimum 85%. Model ini dapat menjadi acuan pengelola PLTU dalam menyusun kebijakan persediaan biomassa yang lebih adaptif dan berkelanjutan.

Biomass cofiring in coal-fired power plants (PLTU) is a key energy transition strategy in Indonesia to reduce coal dependency and support the 2060 Net Zero Emissions target, yet faces challenges from stochastic supply and fluctuating biomass quality. This study develops a sawdust biomass inventory model integrating quality degradation and supply uncertainty, using PLTU Rembang (630MW, 7% cofiring) and PLTU Suralaya 1-7 (3,400 MW, 2% cofiring) as case studies. Supply uncertainty is modeled via a multiplicative proportional yield approach with Beta-distributed simulation, yielding average yield rates of 0.905 (Rembang) and 0.576 (Suralaya 1-7). Annual biomass demand reaches 187,920 tons and 338,225 tons, corrected into order quantities of 208,591 and 599,370 tons per year. Required safety stock is 544 tons and 1,090 tons. Land estimates show bulking silo as most efficient (4,957 m² and 2,479 m²), versus manual stockyard (10,500 m² and 6,000 m²) and natural silo (11,977 m² and 7,826 m²), both within available land (?14,300 m² and ? 9,200 m²). Monte Carlo simulation yields service levels of 90.0% and 87.3%, meeting the 85% minimum target. The model can serveas a reference for power plant managers in formulating more adaptive and sustainable biomass inventory policies.

Kata Kunci : persediaan biomassa, cofiring PLTU, stochastic supply, degradasi kualitas, safety stock, simulasi Monte Carlo