Pengembangan Model Dinamika Sistem Rantai Pasok Logam Tanah Jarang di Indonesia untuk Mendukung Perumusan Kebijakan

Meliora Audrey Yolanda, Prof. Ir. Bertha Maya Sopha, ST., M.Sc., Ph.D., IPU., ASEAN Eng.

2026 | Skripsi | TEKNIK INDUSTRI

Logam Tanah Jarang (LTJ) merupakan mineral kritis yang berperan penting dalam mendukung transisi energi dan perkembangan teknologi modern. Indonesia memiliki potensi sumber daya LTJ. Namun, pengembangan rantai pasok LTJ masih menghadapi berbagai tantangan, seperti keterbatasan kapasitas pengolahan domestik, rendahnya tingkat hilirisasi, serta kebutuhan investasi yang tinggi. Kompleksitas hubungan antara ketersediaan sumber daya, kapasitas pengolahan, permintaan, investasi, dan kebijakan menyebabkan pengembangan rantai pasok LTJ memerlukan pendekatan yang mampu merepresentasikan perilaku sistem secara menyeluruh. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan model System Dynamics untuk merepresentasikan dinamika rantai pasok LTJ di Indonesia serta mengevaluasi berbagai alternatif kebijakan yang mendukung pengembangannya.

Model dikembangkan menggunakan pendekatan System Dynamics melalui penyusunan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD), formulasi model, pengujian model, serta simulasi empat skenario kebijakan, yaitu peningkatan Export Restriction, Investment Incentive, Domestic Processing Policy, dan skenario kombinasi. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan hilirisasi melalui pembatasan ekspor paling efektif dalam meningkatkan ketersediaan pasokan LTJ domestik dan mengurangi tekanan harga dibandingkan skenario kebijakan tunggal lainnya. Sementara itu, penguatan kebijakan pengolahan domestik memberikan dampak terbesar terhadap pengembangan kapasitas pengolahan nasional. Di antara seluruh skenario yang diuji, kombinasi kebijakan hilirisasi, peningkatan investasi, dan pengembangan kapasitas pengolahan menghasilkan kinerja rantai pasok LTJ yang paling baik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat satu kebijakan yang unggul pada seluruh indikator sehingga pengembangan industri LTJ di Indonesia direkomendasikan dilakukan melalui kombinasi kebijakan hilirisasi, peningkatan investasi, dan pengembangan kapasitas pengolahan domestik agar mampu meningkatkan ketersediaan pasokan LTJ secara berkelanjutan. Model yang dikembangkan diharapkan dapat menjadi salah satu alat bantu dalam mengevaluasi alternatif kebijakan pengembangan rantai pasok LTJ di Indonesia.

Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are critical minerals that play an essential role in supporting the energy transition and the advancement of modern technologies. Indonesia possesses significant REE resources. However, the development of its REE supply chain still faces several challenges, including limited domestic processing capacity, a low level of downstream industrialization, and high investment requirements. The complex interactions among resource availability, processing capacity, demand, investment, and government policies necessitate an approach capable of capturing the dynamic behavior of the system. Therefore, this study aims to develop a System Dynamics model to represent the dynamics of Indonesia's REE supply chain and to evaluate alternative policy scenarios that support its development.

The model was developed using the System Dynamics approach through the construction of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), a Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD), model formulation, model testing, and the simulation of four policy scenarios: strengthening Export Restriction, increasing Investment Incentive, strengthening Domestic Processing Policy, and a combined policy scenario. The simulation results indicate that downstream industrialization through export restrictions is the most effective single policy in improving domestic REE availability and reducing price pressure compared with the other individual policy scenarios. Meanwhile, strengthening domestic processing policy provides the greatest contribution to the expansion of national processing capacity. Among all evaluated scenarios, the combined policy scenario integrating downstream industrialization, investment promotion, and processing capacity development delivers the best overall REE supply chain performance. The findings further indicate that no single policy performs best across all performance indicators. Therefore, the development of Indonesia's REE industry is recommended to adopt a complementary policy mix combining downstream industrialization, investment promotion, and domestic processing capacity development to ensure a sustainable domestic REE supply. The developed model is expected to serve as a decision-support tool for evaluating alternative policy options for the development of Indonesia's REE supply chain.

Kata Kunci : Logam Tanah Jarang, System Dynamics, rantai pasok, simulasi kebijakan, hilirisasi