The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Labor Market Outcomes Across Educational Groups in Indonesia

Omar Arrazy Abdul Jabbar Natadisastra, Eny Sulistyaningrum, S.E., M.A., Ph.D.

2026 | Skripsi | ILMU EKONOMI

Pandemi COVID-19 menimbulkan gangguan terhadap pasar tenaga kerja di Indonesia. Namun, sebagian besar penelitian sebelumnya memperlakukan guncangan tersebut sebagai fenomena nasional yang homogen dan berfokus pada dampak jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menganalisis bagaimana variasi intensitas COVID-19 antarwilayah memengaruhi hasil pasar tenaga kerja berdasarkan tingkat pendidikan serta bagaimana dampaknya berkembang seiring waktu. Menggunakan data SAKERNAS Agustus tahun 2019, 2020, 2021, dan 2023 (lebih dari 2,7 juta observasi), penelitian ini menerapkan metode Difference-in-Differences multi-periode untuk membedakan antara guncangan nasional bersama dan efek tambahan akibat intensitas pandemi di tingkat kabupaten/kota.

Hasil penelitian menunjukkan tiga temuan utama. Pertama, meskipun pandemi menimbulkan guncangan nasional yang besar dan menurunkan berbagai indikator pasar tenaga kerja, intensitas COVID-19 di tingkat regional memperdalam penurunan pendapatan dan jam kerja di daerah dengan intensitas tinggi, dan dampak tersebut bertahan hingga tahun 2023. Kedua, dampak pandemi berbeda menurut tingkat pendidikan, di mana pekerja berpendidikan tinggi mengalami penurunan pendapatan yang lebih kecil dan pemulihan yang lebih cepat, sementara pekerja berpendidikan menengah lebih rentan. Ketiga, selain tingkat pendidikan, spesialisasi pendidikan juga dapat memengaruhi tingkat kerentanan, dengan lulusan SMK mengalami kehilangan pekerjaan yang lebih besar dibandingkan lulusan SMA, serta lulusan IPA menunjukkan penyesuaian margin intensif yang lebih kuat di wilayah berintensitas tinggi.

Secara keseluruhan, hasil ini menegaskan bahwa tingkat pendidikan dan intensitas pandemi regional berperan penting dalam membentuk ketahanan pasar tenaga kerja di Indonesia. Dengan membedakan antara guncangan nasional dan regional serta mendokumentasikan heterogenitas dampak antar kelompok pendidikan, penelitian ini memberikan pemahaman yang lebih komprehensif mengenai bagaimana pandemi COVID-19 memengaruhi dinamika pasar tenaga kerja di Indonesia.

The COVID-19 pandemic generated unprecedented disruptions to labor markets worldwide, yet existing evidence for Indonesia has largely treated the shock as nationally homogeneous and focused on short-term effects. This study examines how regional variation in COVID-19 intensity affected labor market outcomes across educational groups in Indonesia and how these effects evolved over time. Using nationally representative data from the August rounds of SAKERNAS (2019, 2020, 2021, and 2023), comprising over 2.7 million observations, the analysis employs a multi-period Difference-in-Differences method to differentiate between the common national shock and an additional causal regional intensity effect. Treatment is defined at the regency level based on confirmed COVID-19 cases per capita.

The results reveal three main findings. First, while the pandemic generated a large national shock that reduced labor market outcomes, regional COVID-19 intensity further amplified income and working-hour losses in high-intensity regions, with effects persisting into 2023. Second, impacts differed by educational attainment, as higher-educated workers experienced smaller income losses and faster recovery, whereas secondary-educated workers were more vulnerable. Third, beyond education level, specialization may also shape exposure, with vocational graduates facing larger employment losses than general high school graduates and natural science graduates exhibiting stronger region-specific intensive-margin adjustments.

Overall, the findings show that both educational attainment and regional intensity shaped labor market resilience in Indonesia. By distinguishing between national and regional shocks and documenting heterogeneous effects across education levels, this study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of how COVID-19 affected labor markets in Indonesia.

Kata Kunci : COVID-19, Labor Market Outcomes, Education