MANAJEMEN LABA MELALUI PENYISIHAN KERUGIAN PINJAMAN PADA BANK KOMERSIAL DI INDONESIA: PERIODE EKONOMI DOWNTURN VS UPTURN

Rachel Maryann Pantouw, Marwan Asri, Prof., M.B.A., Ph.D.

2026 | Tesis | S2 MANAJEMEN (MM) JAKARTA

Penelitian ini menguji praktik manajemen laba melalui pengakuan Expected Credit Loss (ECL) pada bank-bank komersial di Indonesia selama periode ekonomi downturn (2020–2021) dan upturn (2022–2024). Dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dan data panel dari 18 bank KBMI 3 dan 4 yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia, penelitian ini menguji tiga hipotesis utama yakni (1) apakah bank mengakui ECL lebih tinggi selama periode downturn, (2) apakah peningkatan ECL mencerminkan kerugian kredit aktual (net charge-offs), dan (3) apakah ECL yang tinggi selama krisis berdampak positif terhadap kinerja keuangan di masa depan (Return on Assets). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata ECL pada periode downturn (Rp 5,46 miliar) secara signifikan lebih tinggi dibandingkan upturn (Rp 2,73 miliar) (p = 0,0169), mendukung hipotesis pertama. Namun, pengujian terhadap hipotesis kedua mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan ECL tidak berhubungan signifikan dengan kerugian kredit aktual (p = 0,840), sehingga pengakuan ECL yang tinggi lebih mencerminkan kebijakan diskresioner daripada risiko kredit yang terealisasi. Untuk hipotesis ketiga, pengaruh ECL terhadap ROA secara umum tidak signifikan, tetapi interaksi antara ECL dan kondisi krisis (downturn) menunjukkan pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap ROA di periode berikutnya (p = 0,034), mendukung indikasi praktik income shifting. Temuan ini mengonfirmasi bahwa bank memanfaatkan fleksibilitas pengakuan ECL untuk mengatur pola laba antarperiode, terutama pada masa krisis, sejalan dengan teori manajemen laba, big bath accounting, dan income shifting. Penelitian ini memberikan implikasi penting bagi regulator, auditor, dan investor dalam menilai kualitas pelaporan keuangan dan stabilitas sistem perbankan.

This study examines earnings management practices through the recognition of Expected Credit Losses (ECL) in Indonesian commercial banks during economic downturn (2020–2021) and upturn (2022–2024) periods. Using a quantitative approach and panel data from 18 KBMI 3 and 4 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, the study tests three main hypotheses: (1) whether banks recognize higher ECL during downturn periods, (2) whether increased ECL reflects actual credit losses (net charge-offs), and (3) whether high ECL during crises positively affects future financial performance (Return on Assets). The results reveal that the average ECL during downturn (IDR 5.46 billion) is significantly higher than during upturn (IDR 2.73 billion) (p = 0.0169), supporting the first hypothesis. However, the second hypothesis indicates that increased ECL is not significantly related to actual credit losses (p = 0.840), suggesting that high ECL recognition reflects discretionary managerial decisions rather than realized credit risk. For the third hypothesis, the overall effect of ECL on ROA is not significant, but the interaction between ECL and downturn shows a positive and significant impact on subsequent ROA (p = 0.034), confirming the presence of income-shifting practices. These findings confirm that banks utilize the flexibility of ECL recognition to manage earnings across periods, particularly during crises, consistent with earnings management theory, big bath accounting, and income shifting. The study provides important implications for regulators, auditors, and investors in assessing financial reporting quality and banking system stability.

Kata Kunci : Manajemen laba, Expected Credit Loss (ECL), income shifting, downturn, perbankan Indonesia