Kinerja Ekspor Minyak Sawit Indonesia di Pasar Uni Eropa pada Era Renewable Energy Directive

Pipin Mayrani Lovita Mungkur, Dr. Jangkung Handoyo Mulyo, M.Ec.; Dr. Hani Perwitasari, S.P., M.Sc.

2024 | Tesis | S2 Ekonomi Pertanian

Minyak kelapa sawit berperan penting dalam menyumbang devisa Indonesia untuk ekspor nonmigas. Peningkatan produksi ditujukan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pasarnya, tak terkecuali Uni Eropa. Kinerja ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia ke Uni Eropa perlu untuk dikaji terlebih pada era kebijakan Renewable Energy Directive (RED) yang menjadi tantangan bagi Indonesia dikarenakan dapat memengaruhi permintaannya dari pasar Uni Eropa. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis kinerja ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia di Pasar Uni Eropa pada era RED yang dilihat melalui spesialisasi perdagangan, daya saing, dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi ekspornya. Data yang digunakan yakni data sekunder periode 1995-2022 dengan metode Trade Specialization Ratio (TSR) untuk menganalisis spesialisasi perdagangan, metode Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Acceleration Ratio (AR), dan Export Competitiveness Index (XCI) sebagai metode untuk menghitung daya saing. Adapun analisis faktor-faktor memengaruhi kinerja ekspor minyak kelapa sawit Indonesia di pasar Uni Eropa dilakukan dengan regresi data panel: gravity model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia masih berperan sebagai eksportir minyak kelapa sawit di Uni Eropa baik sebelum maupun sesudah ditetapkannya kebijakan RED. Selain itu, kelapa sawit Indonesia masih tergolong berdaya saing di pasar Uni Eropa, tetapi mengalami kecenderungan yang menurun pasca penetapan kebijakan RED. Adapun variabel populasi dan harga lobak berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedangkan GDP importir dan jarak ekonomi menunjukkan pengaruh yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap nilai ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia. Sementara itu terlihat bahwa nilai ekspor minyak sawit Indonesia di pasar Uni Eropa lebih tinggi setelah penetapan kebijakan RED dan sertifikasi RSPO.

Palm oil plays an important role in contributing to Indonesia's foreign exchange for non-oil and gas exports. Increasing production is aimed at meeting market needs, including the European Union. The performance of Indonesian palm oil exports to the European Union needs to be studied, especially in the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) policy era, which is a challenge for Indonesia because it can affect its demand from the European Union market. The aim of this research is to analyse the performance of Indonesian palm oil exports in the European Union Market in the RED era, seen through trade specialization, competitiveness and factors that influence exports. The data used is secondary data for the period 1995-2022 with the Trade Specialization Ratio (TSR) method to analyse trade specialization, the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Acceleration Ratio (AR), and Export Competitiveness Index (XCI) methods as methods for calculating the competitiveness. The analysis of factors influencing the performance of Indonesian palm oil exports in the European Union market was carried out using panel data regression: gravity model. The research results show that Indonesia still plays a role as a palm oil exporter in the European Union both before and after the RED policy was implemented. Besides that, Indonesian palm oil is still relatively competitive in the European Union market but is experiencing a downward trend after the RED policy was implemented. The population variables and rapeseed global prices have a positive and significant influence, at the same time, importer GDP and economic distance show a negative and significant influence on the value of Indonesian palm oil exports. Meanwhile, it can be seen that the value of Indonesian palm oil exports to the European Union market is higher after the RED policy and RSPO certification were implemented.

Kata Kunci : Kinerja Ekspor, Minyak Kelapa Sawit, Model Gravitasi, RED