Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 Terhadap Ekspor Kopi Indonesia

HENI FATMAWATI, Prof. Dr. Ir. Masyhuri

2023 | Tesis | S2 Ekonomi Pertanian

Kopi menjadi komoditas ekspor yang cukup penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia. Pandemi COVID-19 menjadi penghambat kinerja ekspor kopi Indonesia karena ada pembatasan perdagangan internasional untuk mengurangi penularan virus. Berdasarkan masalah tersebut terdapat tiga tujuan, yaitu: (1) Mengetahui pengaruh pandemi COVID-19 terhadap tren ekspor kopi Indonesia saat sebelum dan selama COVID-19`, dan new normal. (2) Mengetahui daya saing kopi Indonesia dan negara pesaing sebelum dan selama pandemi COVID-19, serta new normal. (3) Mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ekspor kopi Indonesia ke negara-negara importir pada sebelum dan selama pandemi COVID-19, serta new normal. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series berupa data bulanan pada sebelum pandemi dari Januari 2018 sampai Februari 2020, selama pandemi dari Maret 2020 sampai Mei 2020, dan new normal dari Juni 2020 sampai Oktober 2022. Data diperoleh dari Trade Map, ICO, Bank Indonesia, dan sumber lainnya. Analisis data yang digunakan adalah Tren, RCA, dan regresi linier berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) penurunan lebih besar saat pandemi adalah ekspor kopi Indonesia terhadap nilai ke Amerika Serikat, volume dan nilai ke Jepang, volume ke Jerman, nilai ke Malaysia, dan volume ke Italia. Saat new normal terjadi penurunan ekspor lebih besar pada volume ekspor ke Amerika Serikat, nilai ekspor ke Jerman, volume ekspor ke Malaysia, dan Nilai ekspor ke Italia. (2) hasil rata-rata nilai RCA dari Indonesia menempati posisi paling bawah dibandingkan ketiga negara lainnya. Selama pandemi COVID-19 daya saing masing-masing negara melemah. Saat new normal, daya saing Indonesia dan Vietnam semakin kuat, namun daya saing Brazil dan Colombia semakin melemah. (3) faktor-faktor yang signifikan mempengaruhi volume dan nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia Amerika Serikat adalah daya saing kopi Indonesia dan harga kopi dunia serta nilai tukar rupiah. Tidak ada variabel yang signifikan dalam mempengaruhi volume dan nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Jepang. Volume ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Jerman dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh nilai tukar rupiah volume ekspor kopi sebelumnya, dan daya saing kopi Indonesia, sedangkan nilai ekspor dipengaruhi signifikan oleh nilai tukar rupiah dan nilai ekspor kopi sebelumnya. Selanjutnya, daya saing kopi Indonesia berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume dan nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Malaysia, nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Malaysia. Terakhir, volume dan nilai ekspor kopi bulan sebelumnya serta daya saing kopi Indonesia berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume dan nilai ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Italia.

Coffee is an important export commodity in the Indonesian economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has hampered Indonesia's coffee export performance because there are restrictions on international trade to reduce virus transmission. Based on this problem, there are three objectives, namely: (1) To determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the trend of Indonesian coffee exports before and during COVID-19, and new normal. (2) To determine the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee and competitor countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and new normal. (3) To determine the factors affecting Indonesia's coffee exports to importing countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the new normal. The data used in this study are time series data in the form of monthly data before the pandemic from January 2018 to February 2020, during the pandemic from March 2020 to May 2020, and new normal from June 2020 to October 2022. Data is obtained from Trade Map, ICO, Bank Indonesia, and other sources. The data analysis used was Trend, RCA, and multiple linear regression. The results showed that: (1) the greater decline during the pandemic was Indonesian coffee exports in value to the United States, volume and value to Japan, volume to Germany, value to Malaysia, and volume to Italy. During the new normal there was a greater decline in exports in the volume of exports to the United States, the value of exports to Germany, the volume of exports to Malaysia, and the value of exports to Italy. (2) The results of the average RCA value of Indonesia occupy the lowest position compared to the other three countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the competitiveness of each country weakened. During the new normal, the competitiveness of Indonesia and Vietnam is getting stronger, but the competitiveness of Brazil and Colombia is getting weaker. (3) Factors that significantly affect the volume and value of Indonesia's coffee exports to the United States are the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee and world coffee prices and the rupiah exchange rate. There are no significant variables in influencing the volume and value of Indonesian coffee exports to Japan. The volume of Indonesian coffee exports to Germany is significantly affected by the rupiah exchange rate, the volume of previous coffee exports, and the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee, while the value of exports is significantly affected by the rupiah exchange rate and the value of previous coffee exports. Furthermore, the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee significantly affects the volume and value of Indonesian coffee exports to Malaysia, while the rupiah exchange rate significantly affects the value of Indonesian coffee exports to Malaysia. Finally, the volume and value of coffee exports in the previous month and the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee have a significant effect on the volume and value of Indonesian coffee exports to Italy.

Kata Kunci : Pandemi COVID-19, Ekspor Kopi, Tren, Daya Saing