APLIKASI METODE PENGUKURAN FIRM INTRINSIC VALUE: Kasus PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk.

Gusni, Sukmawati Sukamulja, Prof., Dr.

2008 | Tesis | Magister Manajemen

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui nilai intrinsik PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. dengan menggunakan tiga metode pengukuran yang berbeda yaitu discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques, abnormal earning dan relative valuation, serta membandingkan hasilnya dan menghitung bias dari ketiga metode tersebut. Hipotesis yang diajukan adalah: (1) Masing-masing metode pengukuran nilai intrinsik perusahaan yang digunakan akan memberikan hasil perhitungan yang berbeda; (2) Ada hubungan antara perubahan nilai intrinsik perusahaan dengan perubahan harga pasarnya. Penelitian ini menggunakan data-data sekunder seperti laporan keuangan PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. periode 2002 - 2006, variabel-variabel ekonomi makro serta perkembangan dunia telekomunikasi dan informasi-infonnasi penting lainnya yang berkaitan dengan topik penulisan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai intrinsik perusahaan lebih rendah dari nilai pasar yang berarti bahwa harga saham per lembar PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. sudah berada pada posisi overvalued. Sedangkan hasil perhitungan bias dengan menggunakan metode meon signed prediction error (MSPE) menunjukkan bahwa metode abnormal earning mampu memberikan tingkat bias yang lebih rendah yaitu sebesar -0,04 jika dibandingkan dengan metode DDM dan PIE dengan tingkat bias masing-masingnya yaitu sebesar 0,15 dan 0,24. Untuk uji statistik dengan menggunakan T-test two tailed menunjul

The purpose of this research is to analyze the intrinsic value of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. by using three different methods, namely discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques, abnormal earning and relative valuation, and to compare these calculations result, as well as to calculate the deviation of those three methods. Thus, the hypotheses are: ( 1) Each of the firm intrinsic value measurement method that we use will give different calculation results; (2) There is a relation between changes of firm intrinsic value with the changes of company market value. This research is using secondary data, c;;uch as the financial reports of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. from the period of 2002 to 2006, macro economic variables, the development in the world of telecommunications, and other information related with the topic of research. The result of the research shows that the company intrinsic value turns out to be lower than the company market value, which means that the common stock price per share of PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. has been on "overvalued" position. Meanwhile the result of deviation calculation using the mean signed prediction error (MSPE) method showed that the abnormal earning method is able to give lower deviation level of -0,04, if compared with DDM and PIE methods which deviation levels are 0,15 and 0,24. As for statistical analysis using T-test two tailed, it shows that there is no difference in calculation resulted by the DDM and abnormal earning methods, or by abnormal earning and PIE methods. On the other hand, a significant difference happened in the result between DDM and PIE methods calculation with the level of significant of 5%. And from correlation analysis using the linier regression on the SPSS program, it is seen that the correlation between the company's actual market price and the company's intrinsic value only happened in the using of abnormal earning method, with the coefficient of correlation (r) of 0,636. Keyword: DCF, Abnormal Earning, Relative Valuation, Common Stock Price

Kata Kunci : DCF, Abnormal Earning, Relative Valuation, Harga Saham