THE IMPACT OF DIRECT SHIPMENT TO FORECAST ACCURACY IN COCA-COLA AMATIL INDONESIA

PRAMITA RISKIA D P, Wakhid Slamet Ciptono, MBA, MPM, Ph.D

2018 | Tesis | MAGISTER MANAJEMEN (KAMPUS JAKARTA)

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa pengaruh implementasi direct shipment di Coca-Cola Amatil Indonesia terhadap sales forecast accuracy. Penelitian ini dilakukan di area Kalimantan, sebagai area yang menghasilkan sales tertinggi di luar Jawa dan hanya focus terhadap produk PET CSD 390ml yang merupakan produk dengan kontribusi sales terbesar. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan membandingkan sales forecast accuracy sebelum dan setelah implementasi direct shipment di Kalimantan. Metode forecasting yang digunakan adalah metode exponential smoothing dan proyeksi trend. Perhitungan sales forecast accuracy dilakukan menggunakan Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) formulation. Selain melakukan perhitungan, juga dilakukan wawancara kepada pihak-pihak yang terkait dan observasi. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa implementasi direct shipment dapat meningkatkan akurasi forecast sales setelah beberapa bulan diimplementasi. Pada masa transisi, akurasi forecast sangat kecil karena adanya penyesuaian dari tim sales, logistik, dan supply chain. Namun angka akurasi berangsur naik setelah implementasi dilakukan selama 3 bulan. Hasil yang sama terjadi dalam inventory issues yang muncul di Kalimantan. Produk expired dan out of stock rate menurun beberapa bulan setelah implementasi. Namun, ada beberapa factor external yang mempengaruhi kesuksesan direct shipment, seperti kesiapan outlet, kondisi limit kredit, dan kondisi pasar. Perusahaan harus memperhatikan masalah-masalah ini. Dari hasil penelitian, penulis mengusulkan penggunaan metode exponential smoothing untuk forecasting dan adanya meeting kolaborasi antar department untuk memonitor inventory issues di Kalimantan.

This study aims to analyze the effect of direct shipment implementation in Coca-Cola Amatil Indonesia to sales forecast accuracy. This research was conducted in Kalimantan area, as the area produced the highest sales outside Java and only focused on PET 390ml CSD (carbonated soft drink) which was the product having the biggest sales contribution. This study was conducted by comparing the sales forecast accuracy before and after the implementation of direct shipment in Kalimantan. Forecasting method used was exponential smoothing method and trend projection. Sales forecast accuracy calculation was done using Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) formulation. In addition to calculations, interviews to relevant parties and related observations were also conducted. The results of this study indicate that the implementation of direct shipment can improve the accuracy of forecast sales after several months of implementation. During the transition period, forecast accuracy has been very small due to adjustments from sales, logistics, and supply chain teams. But the accuracy rate gradually increased after the implementation was done for 3 months. Similar results occur in inventory issues that appear in Kalimantan. Expired products and out of stock rates decreased several months after implementation. However, there are some external factors that affect the success of direct shipment, such as outlet readiness, credit limit conditions, and market conditions. Companies should pay attention to these issues. From the results of the study, the authors propose to use of exponential smoothing methods for forecasting and the presence of collaboration meetings between departments to monitor inventory issues in Kalimantan.

Kata Kunci : Forecasting, Exponential Smoothing, Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Delivery, Direct Shipment, Inventory, Durability, Out of Stock, Supply Chain Management, Food and Beverages Industry.