Evaluasi Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Pengembangan Gas Pagardewa di PT Pertamina (Persero)
HARSOYO, AGUS (Adv.: Jogiyanto Hartono, Prof.Dr., M.B.A.), Jogiyanto Hartono, Prof.Dr., M.B.A.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kelayakan financial proyek pengembangan gas Pagardewa di Sumatera Selatan, serta menganalisis variabel-variabel apa saja yang memberikan kontribusi yang paling sensitif dalam setiap pengambilan keputusan investasi. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat bermanfaat bagi PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO) dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi, apakah suatu investasi layak atau tidak secara financial. Analisis sensitifitas dalam penelitian ini juga dapat digunakan perusahaan untuk mengontrol variabel yang akan berpengaruh terhadap perhitungan Net Present Value. Penelitian ini menggunakan data perusahaan PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO), yang meliputi Plant of Development (POD) proyek pengembangan gas Pagardewa, laporan keuangan, kebijakan pedoman pendanaan. Data tersebut dievaluasi, diformulasikan dalam perhitungan, kemudian dianalisis hasil perhitungan tersebut sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan. Perhitungan dianalisis dengan menggunakan beberapa metode, antara lain net present value, internal rate of return, discounted payback period, dan profitabililty indexs.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan net present value sebesar US$ 144.414.314, discounted payback period 9,52 tahun, profitability indexs 1,51, dan internal rate of return 19,73%. Secara keseluruhan proyek tersebut layak secara finansial. Hasil dari analisa sensitifitas terhadap variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap perhitungan proyeksi arus kas, diantaranya produksi gas, biaya operasi & maintenance, dan tingkat discount rate, menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang paling sensitive terhadap perhitungan net present value adalah produksi gas.
The objectives of this research are to evaluate financial aptness of project development of Pagardewa Gas in South Sumatra and to analyze variables that give the most sensitive influence in investment decision making. Expectantly the result of this research will give benefit for PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO) in making decision to invest, whether the investment meet the financial aptness or not. Sensitivity analysis in this research can be used by the company to control variables that give the biggest impact on the calculation of Net Present Value (NPV). The data used in this research is primary data from PT PERTAMINA (PERSERO) which include Plant of Development (POD) of project development of Pagardewa Gas, financial report, and financing procedure. The data have been evaluated, formulated using several formulas and analyzed as a basis of investment decision making. Several formulas used for analyzing the data are net present value (NVP), internal rate of return (IRR), discounted payback period (DPP), and profitability index (PI). The results of this research are NPV US$144.414.314, IRR 19,73%, DPP 9,52 years, and PI 1,51. These results show that this project has met the financial aptness. The sensitivity analysis result of the most influencing variables on projected cash flow calculation e.g. gas production, operational and maintenance cost, and discount rate, shows that the most sensitive variable that gives the biggest impact on the calculation of NPV is gas production.
Kata Kunci : investment, net present value, internal rate of return, discounted payback period, profitability index, sensitivity.
