Penentuan investasi antara saham PT BCA, Tbk. dan PT Bank Mandiri, Tbk. dengan menggunakan dividend discount model dan price to book velue

HUSODO, David, Indra Wijaya Kusuma, Prof., Dr., MBA

2008 | Tesis | S2 Magister Manajemen

Dalam melakukan investasi pada instrumen saham, para investor harus memperhatikan kondisi perusahaan dalam jangka panjang supaya diharapkan dapat memberikan keuntungan atau return bagi investor. Analisis fundamental merupakan analisis yang memperkirakan harga saham di masa yang akan datang dengan melakukan estimasi. Estimasi tersebut memperhatikan faktor – faktor fundamental yang mempengaruhi harga saham dan menerapkan hubungan variabel – variabel tersebut sehingga diperoleh nilai intrinsik saham tersebut. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mendapatkan nilai intrinsik dari saham PT. BCA, Tbk. (BBCA) dan PT. Bank Mandiri, Tbk. (BMRI) dengan harapan para investor mempunyai bahan pertimbangan investasi pada kedua saham tersebut sehingga memberikan keuntungan atau capital gain bagi para investor. Analisis fundamental dimulai dari analisis ekonomi, analisis industri, dan kemudian analisis perusahaan. Didalam analisis ekonomi, penulis melihat kondisi makro ekonomi yang kemudian dihubungkan dengan kondisi perusahaan sedangkan analisis industri melihat siklus bisnis dan siklus kehidupan industri. Untuk analisis perusahaan digunakan dua metode yaitu Dividend Discount Model dan Price to Book Value. Selain menghitung nilai intrinsik kedua saham tersebut, juga disajikan analisis rasio keuangan khususnya bagi industri perbankan. Hasil analisis rasio keuangan tersebut menunjukkan bahwa rasio keuangan PT. BCA, Tbk. lebih unggul dibandingkan PT. Bank Mandiri, Tbk. Hasil nilai intrinsik saham BBCA dan BMRI dengan menggunakan metode Dividend Discount Model ditemukan bahwa saham BBCA masih undervalued sebesar Rp. 699 per lembar saham sedangkan saham BMRI sudah overvalued sebesar Rp. 231 per lembar saham. Untuk metode Price to Book Value ditemukan juga bahwa saham BBCA masih undervalued sebesar Rp. 632 per lembar saham sedangkan saham BMRI sudah overvalued sebesar Rp. 242 per lembar saham.

When doing some investment in stock, the investors must pay attention to the condition of company in the long term to be expected to be able give profit or return for the investors. The fundamental analysis ia an analysis that estimated the price of the stock in the period that will come by carrying out the estimation. This estimation paid attention to the fundamental factors that influenced the price of the stock and applied related variables to obtain an intrinsic value of stock. The aim of this research was to get the intrinsic value from the PT BCA, Tbk.(BBCA) and PT, Bank Mandiri, Tbk.(BMRI) in hope that the investors has the investment point to be considered in the two stocks so as to give profit or capital gain for the investors. The fundamental analysis is begin from the analysis of economics, the analysis of the industry, and afterwards the analysis of the company. In the analysis of economics, the writer concern macro economics that afterwards was connected with the condition of company whereas the analysis of the industry concern about business cycle and the life cycle of the industry. For the analysis of the company was used by two methods that is Dividend Discount Model and Price to Book Value. Aside from the calculation of two intrinsic value this stocks, this research also presents ratio analysis especially for the banking industry. The results of the ratio analysis showed that the ratio of PT BCA, Tbk. more better than PT. Bank Mandiri, Tbk. The intrinsic value of BBCA’s stock and BMRI’s stock by using the method Dividend Discount Model was found that BBCA’s stock still undervalued by Rp.699 per share whereas BMRI’s stock already overvalued by Rp.231 per share. With price to book value method was found also that BBCA’s stock still undervalued by Rp.632 per share whereas the BMRI’s stock already overvalued by Rp.242 per share.

Kata Kunci : Analisis fundamental,Dividend discount model,Price to book value