HEURISTICS UNTUK PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN DAN KINERJA INVESTASI: EKSPLORASI MEKANISME MEDIASI FUNDAMENTAL ANOMALIES DAN TECHNICAL ANOMALIES

SHAFIERA LAZUARNI, Prof. Marwan Asri, M.B.A., Ph.D.

2019 | Tesis | MAGISTER SAINS MANAJEMEN

Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji peran perilaku heuristics yakni availability, representativeness, dan hindsight heuristics yang dimiliki oleh investor terhadap terbentuknya fundamental anomalies dan technical anomalies di pasar modal, selain itu penelitian ini juga bertujuan menguji peran fundamental anomalies dan technical anomalies terhadap kinerja investasi. Hasil penelitian yang didapatkan dari 369 investor yang mengisi kuesioner secara daring, menunjukkan bahwa availability heuristics yang dimiliki investor berpengaruh positif terhadap terjadinya fundamental anomalies di pasar modal tetapi tidak terbukti pada pembentukan technical anomalies, selanjutnya didapatkan hasil bahwa representativeness dan hindsight heuristics yang dimiliki investor juga terbukti berpengaruh positif terhadap terjadinya fundamental anomalies dan technical anomalies di pasar modal. Penelitian ini juga melakukan pengujian tambahan yakni menguji fundamental anomalies dan technical anomalies yang dijadikan sebagai variabel mediasi, hasil eksplorasi menemukan bahwa variabel fundamental anomalies memediasi secara parsial hubungan antara variabel representativeness dan hindsight terhadap kinerja investasi tetapi tidak memediasi hubungan antara availability tarhadap kinerja investasi. Technical anomalies juga tidak mampu menjelaskan hubungan antara variabel availability dan representativeness terhadap kinerja investasi, tetapi technical anomalies memediasi secara parsial hubungan antara hindsight terhadap kinerja investasi.

This study aims to examine the role of heuristics behavior, namely availability, representativeness, and hindsight heuristics owned by investors towards the formation of fundamental anomalies and technical anomalies in the capital market. Besides, this study also aims to examine the role of fundamental anomalies and technical anomalies on investment performance. The results obtained from 369 investors who filled out the questionnaire online, showed that availability heuristics owned by investors had a positive effect on the occurrence of fundamental anomalies in the capital market but was not proven in the formation of technical anomalies. Then it was found that investor representativeness and hindsight heuristics were proven has a positive effect on the occurrence of fundamental anomalies and technical anomalies in the capital market. This study also conducts additional testing with fundamental anomalies and technical anomalies as the mediating variables. The results of the exploration find that the fundamental variable of anomalies mediate partially the relationship between representativeness and hindsight variables on investment performance but do not mediate the relationship between the availability heuristic of investment performance. Technical anomalies are also unable to explain the relationship between availability and representativeness variables on investment performance, but technical anomalies partially mediate the relationship between hindsight and investment performance.

Kata Kunci : heuristics, availability, representativeness, hindsight, fundamental anomalies, technical anomalies, kinerja investasi, behavioural finance.