Pengaruh Berita Fundamental (Crude Oil Inventories, Non-Farm Payroll, dan Unemployment Rate) terhadap Volatilitas Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia

ROSYIIDA ARBIL A, Dra. Sufitri, M.M.

2016 | Tugas Akhir | D3 MANAJEMEN SV

INTISARI Volatilitas Harga minyak mentah dipengaruhi oleh permintaan dan penawaran di seluruh dunia. Nilai tukar mata uang yang digunakan dalam perdagangan minyak mentah juga ikut berpengaruh pada volatilitas harga minyak mentah. Sentimen-sentimen yang mempengaruhi apresiasi/depresiasi dolar AS juga bisa berimbas pada volatilitas harga minyak mentah beberapa diantaranya adalah Crude Oil Inventories, Non-Farm Payrolls, dan Unemployment Rate. Penelitian yang dilakukan bertujuan untuk mengukur pengaruh Crude Oil Inventories, Non-Farm Payrolls, dan Unemployment Rate terhadap volatilitas harga minyak mentah tahun 2013-2015. Penelitian yang dilakukan menggunakan metode analisis regresi berganda. Hasil pengujian Crude Oil Inventories bersifat negatif terhadap tingkat volatilitas harga minyak mentah, jika terjadi kenaikan 1% terhadap Crude Oil Inventories maka Volatilitas Harga Minyak Mentah akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0.286 point. Hasil pengujian pengaruh Non-Farm Payroll bersifat positif terhadap tingkat volatilitas harga minyak mentah, jika terjadi kenaikan 1% terhadap Non-Farm Payroll maka Volatilitas Harga Minyak Mentah akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0.733 point. Hasil pengujian pengaruh Unemployment Rate bersifat positif terhadap tingkat volatilitas harga minyak mentah, jika terjadi kenaikan 1% terhadap Crude Oil Inventories maka Volatilitas Harga Minyak Mentah akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,631 persen.

Effect Of Fundamental News (Crude Oil Inventories, Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate) to the World Crude Oil Price Volatility Volatility Crude oil prices are affected by supply and demand worldwide. Currency exchange rates used in the trade of crude oil may have contributed to the volatility of crude oil prices. Business sentiments that influence the appreciation / depreciation of the US dollar can also impact on the volatility of crude oil prices some of which is Crude Oil Inventories, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Research conducted aims to measure the influence of Crude Oil Inventories, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate to price volatility of crude oil in 2013-2015. This research using multiple regression analysis. The test results are negative Crude Oil Inventories on the level of volatility of crude oil prices, if there is an increase of 1% to the Crude Oil Inventories Crude Oil Price Volatility will be decreased by 0286 points. Results from research of the effect of the Non-Farm Payroll are positive on the level of volatility of crude oil prices, if there is an increase of 1% of the Non-Farm Payroll, the volatility of crude oil price will be decreased by 0733 points. And from research Unemployment Rate positive influence on the level of volatility of crude oil prices, if there is an increase of 1% to the Crude Oil Inventories Crude Oil Price Volatility will be decreased by 0.631 percent.

Kata Kunci : Pengaruh, Berita Fundamental, Volatilitas, Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia, Crude Oil Inventories, Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate, Analisis Regresi Berganda