ANALISIS ABANDONMENT OPTION GAS PLANT MENGGUNAKAN TEKNIK MONTE CARLO SIMULATION STUDY PADA PT XYZ
EVIE NOVITA DEWI, Kusdhianto Setiawan, Sivilokom., Ph.D.
2016 | Tesis | S2 ManajemenPT XYZ menerima penugasan pembangunan gas plant untuk disewakan kepada PT ABC yang merupakan salah satu induk perusahaannya. Di dalam kesepakatan sewa gas plant antara PT XYZ dengan PT ABC terdapat klausul Take or Pay (ToP), yang dapat direalisasikan jika laju aliran gas dari pemasok gas mencapai 50 BBTUD. ToP merupakan nilai minimum harian yang harus dibayar oleh PT ABC kepada PT XYZ sebesar 80% dari 17 BBTUD dikalikan tarif sewa (80% x 17.000 MMBTU x 3 USD). Sejak gas plant dinyatakan beroperasi pada tanggal 1 Januari 2014, aliran gas dari pemasok gas tidak pernah mencapai 50 BBTUD dan penyerapan produksi gas plant oleh PT ABC kurang dari 13,6 BBTUD. Hal tersebut berdampak pada tidak tercapainya target revenue sesuai dengan perhitungan keekonomian investasi, sehingga tingkat pengembalian investasi tidak sesuai dengan yang diharapkan. Sejalan dengan teori real option, Manajemen PT XYZ diharapkan bersikap aktif dalam menghadapi realisasi investasi gas plant. Manajemen PT XYZ dapat mengambil kebijakan untuk mempertahankan atau menghentikan operasional gas plant dan menjualnya kepada PT ABC berdasarkan analisis abandonment option menggunakan teknik Monte Carlo Simulation. Analisis tersebut dilakukan untuk mengetahui tahun sewa keberapa PT XYZ dapat mengeksekusi abandonment option dan berapa nilai gas plant yang dapat ditawarkan kepada PT ABC pada saat PT XYZ mengeksekusi abandonment option. Berdasarkan analisis abandonment option berbantuan software Oracle Crystal Ball, diketahui probabilitas terbesar tercapainya ENPV lebih besar dari 0 pada skenario optimist tercapai pada alternatif pengambilan keputusan No Shutdown Option, dan Shutdown at Year 8 s.d 15. Pada skenario mostlikely probabilitas terbesar tersebut tercapai pada alternatif Shutdown at Year 13 s.d 15, sedangkan pada skenario pessimist tercapai pada alternatif Shutdown at Year 15. Pada skenario gabungan, probabilitas terbesar tersebut tercapai pada alternatif Shutdown at Year 15. Probabilitas terbesar tercapainya ENPV lebih besar sama dengan USD -5.3 juta (batas toleransi kerugian) pada skenario pessimist tercapai pada alternatif Shutdown at Year 15. Probabilitas terbesar tercapainya ENPV lebih besar sama dengan USD 17.6 juta pada skenario optimist tercapai pada alternatif No Shutdown Option, dan Shutdown at Year 14 & 15. Pada skenario mostlikely dan skenario gabungan tercapai pada alternatif Shutdown at Year 15. Perhitungan nilai gas plant dilakukan merujuk pada penetapan umur manfaat dan komponenisasi aset tetap yang berlaku di PT XYZ. Untuk mendapatkan tingkat pengembalian investasi yang optimum, sebaiknya PT XYZ meneruskan kerjasama sewa gas plant sampai dengan akhir masa sewa dan menjual gas plant setelah masa sewa berakhir dengan batas nilai minimum sebesar 25% dari nilai investasi gas plant atau senilai USD 13.25 juta. Kata kunci: Real Option, Abandonment Option, Investasi.
PT XYZ accepted the Gas Plant Development Project for which to be leased to PT ABC, one of its parent company. Included in the Gas Plant Lease Agreement between PT XYZ and PT ABC was a Take or Pay (ToP) clause that could only be applied in condition of which the volume of gas flowing from the supplier reached 50 BBTUD. ToP was the minimum charge per day that has to be paid by PT ABC to PT XYZ which is calculated as 80% of 17 BBTUD multiplied by the lease fee (80% x 17.000 MMBTU x 3 USD). Ever since the Gas Plant was operated at 1st January 2014, gas supply never reached 50 BBTUD and the absorption of Gas Plant production by PT ABC was less than 13,6 BBTUD. The result of this condition was the failure of reaching revenue target as calculated in the investment feasibility analysis and the expected return of investment was not achieved accordingly. Consistent with real option theory, the management of PT XYZ was expected to actively respond to the aforementioned condition. The company may well decide on continuing the operation the Gas Plant or bringing the operation to a halt and selling the plant to PT ABC based on the abandonment option analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation technique. The analysis would be conducted in order to calculate the year on which the abandonment option could be carried out by PT XYZ and the value of the gas plant that could be offered to PT ABC at the time of abandonment option implementation correspondingly. According to the abandonment option analysis using Oracle Crystal Ball software, it was identified that the highest probability of achieving ENPV greater than 0 in optimist scenario was accomplished by taking No Shutdown Option and Shutdown at year 8 to 15 as alternative decisions. Whereas in mostlikely scenario and combined scenario, the highest probability of achieving ENPV greater than 0 was accomplished by taking the alternative of Shutdown at Year 13 to 15 and Shutdown at Year 15 respectively. Furthermore, the highest probability of achieving ENPV greater than or equal to USD -5.3 million (the maximum limit of loss tolerance) in pessimist scenario was accomplished by taking the alternative of Shutdown at Year 15. Additionally, the highest probability of achieving ENPV greater than or equal to USD 17.6 million in optimist scenario was accomplished by taking No Shutdown Option and Shutdown at Year 14 & 15 as alternative decisions. Meanwhile, in most-likely scenario and combined scenario, the aforementioned condition was accomplished by taking Shutdown at Year 15 as an alternative decision. The value of Gas Plant was calculated according to the determination of useful life and fixed asset componentization method implemented in PT XYZ. In order to achieve the optimum level of return of investment, it is recommended to PT XYZ to continue the lease agreement of the Gas Plant until the end of lease period and subsequently sell the Gas Plant for the minimum value of 25% of Gas Plant investment or USD 13.25 million. Keywords: Real Option, Abandonment Option, Investment.
Kata Kunci : Real Option, Abandonment Option, Investment
