A DECISION MAKING SUPPORT TOOL FOR METHANE HYDRATE PRODUCTION METHOD SELECTION: A CASE STUDY OF MAKASSAR STRAIT INDONESIA
ARDIAN NENGKODA, Ir. Supranto, M.Sc., Ph.D;Prof. Ir. Suryo Purwono, M.A.Sc., Ph.D;Ir. Imam Prasetyo, M.Eng., Ph.D
2016 | Disertasi | S3 ILMU TEKNIK KIMIAIndonesia preliminary has discovered 850 (Tcf) of potential methane gas hydrates deposits in two area locations in year 2004; mainly concentrated in South Sumatra's southern waters extending to West Java (625 Tcf) and in the Sulawesi Makassar Strait (233.2 Tcf). Considering their challenges, offshore methane hydrate E&P are risky, costly and not stable at normal sea level pressures and temperatures. Currently unfortunately there is no International or local Health, Safety and Environmental-Risk Management Systems (HSE&RMS) standard and nontechnical risk (NTR) guideline exist. The objective of the research is to develop a decision making support (DMS) tool for methane hydrate production method selection with case study of Indonesia Makassar Strait. As methodology, the novel work flow comprised of SWOT evaluation, HAZID analysis, quantitative assessment (laboratory assessment or modelling simulation) and risk forecast using Monte Carlo analysis is introduced. The input for the processes are Knowledge Management (KM) and Process Flow Diagram (PFD), while six production methods scenario such as thermal injection, depressurization, combination depressurization and thermal injection, chemical injection, fracking and CO2 injection method; are evaluated. Finally as the result, the DMS tool is successfully proven to be capable in selecting the most optimum production method, meet ALARP risk level and proficient to integrate the HSE&RMS and NTR. Based on the SWOT and HAZID evaluation, depressurization method concluded to be the most feasible production method. A laboratory and modelling assessment summarized that the depressurization technique require a hydrate dissociation pressure of 100.75 psia. While for thermal injection method scenario, at 80 oC of 50 gpm of sea water injection, the methane gas release is showing a limited flow rate of 7.8 gpm and the process require a higher energy consumption including a potential inorganic scale problems. The Monte Carlo whole risk forecast for show a value of 5.88 with probability of 90%, mean of 5.66 and categorized as medium risk. The dominant of whole risk forecast mainly contributed by the indirect tendency of the methane hydrate deposit reserve as many as 43% as well as the direct and insitu indices. The second contributor is surface processing effectivity factor (13%) and the third is methane GHG leakage contribution (12%). By performing a sensitivity analysis, the exact mitigation effort can be deployed to lowering the risk level. As a part of non-technical study deliverability; a conceptual production prototype and the proposed improvement to the Indonesian regulation Permen ESDM 05/ 2012 also successfully presented.
Indonesia preliminary has discovered 850 (Tcf) of potential methane gas hydrates deposits in two area locations in year 2004; mainly concentrated in South Sumatra's southern waters extending to West Java (625 Tcf) and in the Sulawesi Makassar Strait (233.2 Tcf). Considering their challenges, offshore methane hydrate E&P are risky, costly and not stable at normal sea level pressures and temperatures. Currently unfortunately there is no International or local Health, Safety and Environmental-Risk Management Systems (HSE&RMS) standard and nontechnical risk (NTR) guideline exist. The objective of the research is to develop a decision making support (DMS) tool for methane hydrate production method selection with case study of Indonesia Makassar Strait. As methodology, the novel work flow comprised of SWOT evaluation, HAZID analysis, quantitative assessment (laboratory assessment or modelling simulation) and risk forecast using Monte Carlo analysis is introduced. The input for the processes are Knowledge Management (KM) and Process Flow Diagram (PFD), while six production methods scenario such as thermal injection, depressurization, combination depressurization and thermal injection, chemical injection, fracking and CO2 injection method; are evaluated. Finally as the result, the DMS tool is successfully proven to be capable in selecting the most optimum production method, meet ALARP risk level and proficient to integrate the HSE&RMS and NTR. Based on the SWOT and HAZID evaluation, depressurization method concluded to be the most feasible production method. A laboratory and modelling assessment summarized that the depressurization technique require a hydrate dissociation pressure of 100.75 psia. While for thermal injection method scenario, at 80 oC of 50 gpm of sea water injection, the methane gas release is showing a limited flow rate of 7.8 gpm and the process require a higher energy consumption including a potential inorganic scale problems. The Monte Carlo whole risk forecast for show a value of 5.88 with probability of 90%, mean of 5.66 and categorized as medium risk. The dominant of whole risk forecast mainly contributed by the indirect tendency of the methane hydrate deposit reserve as many as 43% as well as the direct and insitu indices. The second contributor is surface processing effectivity factor (13%) and the third is methane GHG leakage contribution (12%). By performing a sensitivity analysis, the exact mitigation effort can be deployed to lowering the risk level. As a part of non-technical study deliverability; a conceptual production prototype and the proposed improvement to the Indonesian regulation Permen ESDM 05/ 2012 also successfully presented.
Kata Kunci : decision making support (DMS), knowledge management (KM), process flow diagram (PFD), methane gas hydrate, depressurization method, risk management, Monte Carlo modelling
