ANALISIS PENGARUH HARGA EMAS, TINGKAT INFLASI, HARGA MINYAK, NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN INDEK REGIONAL TERHADAP PERGERAKAN IHSG, 2007 � 2012

ARIS NUR HASAN, Drs. Ahmad Jamli, M.A.

2015 | Tesis | S2 Ekonomika Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh harga emas, inflasi, harga minyak, nilai tukar rupiah, indek regional terhadap indek harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Metode Analisis yang digunakan adalah Regresi Liner Berganda. Sebelum malakukan analisis dilakukan uji asumsi klasik untuk memastikan bahwa model telah memenuhi asumsi BLUE (Best, Linier and Unbiased Estimator). Periode pengamatan adalah 2007 -- 2012. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan secara simultan semua variabel bebas secara bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap indek harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Besarnya pengaruh variabel bebas tersebut adalah 98,4 persen sedangkan sisanya 1,6 persen di pengaruhi oleh variabel lain di luar model penelitian. Secara parsial variabel harga emas, nilai tukar rupiah, indek saham Singapura, dan indek saham Korea berpengaruh terhadap IHSG. Keempat variabel tersebut berhubungan posistif terhadap IHSG

The research aims to examine the influence of the gold price, inflation, oil price, exchange rate and regional composite index to composite stock price index (IHSG). This research using multiple regression analysis to examine the influent of the gold price, inflation, oil price, exchange rate and regional composite index to IHSG. Previously had passed the stage of classical assumption test. The classical assumption test to get BLUE ( Best, Linier and Unbiased Estimator) criteria. The observation period during 2007 -- 2012. The resuld showed that simultaneously variabel, gold price, inflation, oil price, exchange rate, and regional composite index have a significant influence the composite stock price index. The test result showed the value of coefficient of determination adjusted R Square = 98,4 percent that mean the movement changes dependent variable (IHSG) can be explained or influenced by movement change independent variable by 98,4 percent, whereas the rest 1,6 percent is explained by others variable that not include in this research model. Partially gold price, exchange rate, and regional composite index (straits time index Singapure and Korea composit index ) have a positive and significant effect on IHSG

Kata Kunci : Harga Emas. Inflasi, Harga Minyak, Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Indek Saham Singapura, Indek Saham Korea/Gold price, inflation, oil price, exchange rate, Singapura composite index, Korea composite index