PENILAIAN SAHAM PT UNITED TRACTOR, TBK PASCA KEBIJAKAN INSENTIF PAJAK TAHUN 2007

Akhmad Asmawi, I Wayan Nuka Lantara, M.Si., Ph.D

2015 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi nilai pasar wajar per lembar saham PT. United Tractor,Tbk., pasca kebijakan insentif pajak yang diberikan oleh pemerintah. Penelitian ini juga dimaksudkan untuk mengetahui apakah nilai pasar wajar saham di pasar modal berada dalam kondisi undervalued atau overvalued. Informasi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berasal dari data sekunder berupa laporan keuangan PT. United Tractor,Tbk., selama lima tahun terakhir sejak tahun 2008 sampai dengan tahun 2012 yang diaudit oleh akuntan publik dan informasi lain yang terkandung dalam prospektus PT. United Tractor,Tbk., laporan keuangan perusahaan pembanding, dan data harga saham perusahaan pembanding di pasar modal. Metoda analisis yang digunakan untuk menentukan nilai pasar wajar per lembar saham adalah Discounted Cash Flow dan Relative Valuation. Analisis metoda Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dilakukan dengan cara: proyeksi laporan keuangan yaitu neraca dan laporan laba rugi, proyeksi Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF), penentuan tingkat diskonto, penentuan Terminal Value, dan estimasi nilai wajar ekuitas. Analisis Relative Valuation dimulai dengan mencari perusahaan pembanding dalam bidang usaha yang sama, memilih dan menetapkan multiple yang sesuai dari perusahaan pembanding. Multiple yang digunakan adalah: Price Earnings Ratio (PER), Price to Book Value (PBV), dan Price to Sales Ratio (P/S). Hasil penelitian dengan menggunakan metoda Discounted Cash Flow dengan Free Cash Flow to Firm model diperoleh indikasi nilai pasar wajar per lembar saham sebesar Rp18.299,00. Sementara dengan menggunakan metoda Relative Valuation diperoleh indikasi nilai pasar wajar per lembar saham sebesar Rp12.089,00 yaitu dengan Price Earning Ratio sebesar Rp17.254,00, Price to Book Value sebesar Rp10.416,00 dan Price to Sales sebesar Rp5.103,00. Hasil rekonsiliasi kedua metoda tersebut diperoleh estimasi nilai wajar sebesar Rp15.194,00.

This research aims to estimate fair market value per share of PT United Tractors,Tbk., as a comparison value to the offered price, set at the time of rights issue. This research also aims to determine whether the price offered above mentioned were undervalued or overvalued. Information used in this research is in the form of secondary data of PT United Tractors,Tbk., financial statements for the period of five years from 2008 to 2012 which was audited by public accountants collectively with other information contained in the its prospectus, financial report of comparable companies, and stock prices of comparable companies. The analyzing tools used to determine the fair market value per share are discounted cash flow method and relative valuation method. The discounted cash flow method were perform via projection of the financial statements i.e. the balance sheet and income statement, projection of Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF), determination of the discount rate, determination of terminal value, and determining the estimated value of the equity. The relative valuation method is established by searching, choosing and determining the appropriate multiple of comparable companies in similar bussines. Multiples used are Price Earnings Ratio (PER), Price to Book Value (PBV), and Price to Sales Ratio (P/S). The result using the discounted cash flow method is indicated fair market value per share at Rp18.299,00. While using the relative valuation method at Rp 12.089,00- the value arrived as follows indicated fair market value per share using price earnings ratio, price to book value and price to sales are Rp17.254,00, Rp 10.416,00 and Rp5.103,00 respectively. By reconciling two methods, the result of estimated fair market value per share is Rp15.194,00.

Kata Kunci : penilaian perusahaan, Insentif, DCF, Relative Valuation/company valuation, insentive, DCF, relative valuation