TEORI STRUKTUR MODAL DI INDONESIA: APAKAH PECKING ORDER, TRADE-OFF ATAU MARKET TIMING?

LUSIANUS H. S. KELEN, Prof. Dr. Eduardus Tendelilin, MBA

2014 | Tesis | S2 SAINS MANAJEMEN

Teori struktur modal mengalami perkembangan setelah tulisan terkenal MM tentang teori tentang struktur modal yang tidak relevan pada 1958. Terdapat tiga teori yang mendominasi tentang keputusan struktur modal perusahaan, yaitu teori pecking order, trade-off dan market timing. Sehingga penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji secara statistik teori struktur modal yang lebih cenderung digunakan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan di Indonesia, apakah teori pecking order, trade-off atau market timing. Berdasarkan tinjauan literatur, umumnya teori yang berlaku adalah pecking order, dibandingkan kedua teori struktur modal lainnya, sehingga hal tersebut menjadi prediksi yang akan dibuktikan. Penelitian menggunakan jumlah sampel sebesar 665 perusahaan-tahun (data panel) dan menggunakan tiga model penelitian, temuan penelitian sesuai dengan prediksi sebelumnya, dimana teori pecking order lebih dominan dibandingkan trade-off dan market timing. Namun, hasil tersebut tidak berarti bahwa teori trade-off dan market timing tidak berlaku, karena terbukti signifikan pada beberapa model penelitian. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa ketiga teori struktur modal yang diteliti memiliki sifat tidak saling meniadakan (non-mutual exclusive).

The theory of capital structure had been developed after the famed MM's work of irrelevant capital structure theory in 1958. There are three theories which dominate on the firm's decision of capital structure, i.e. pecking order, trade-off and market timing theory. This study aims to test theory of capital structure statistically, which is more likely to be used by firms in Indonesia, whether pecking order, trade-off or market timing theory. Based on the literature review, it can be summarized generally that compared to the three theories, the theory which is accepted is pecking order. According to that analysis, so it becomes the main hypothesis on this study. Using 665 firm-years data panel and three models of research, the findings of the study is appropriate with the previous prediction, which is pecking order theory has more significantly dominant value than trade-off and market timing. However, the results do not mean that trade-off and market timing theory are not applicable. From the results, the findings also show statistically significant results on some other models. So it can be concluded that three theories of capital structure are non-mutually exclusive.

Kata Kunci : Struktur Modal, Pecking Order, Trade-off, Market Timing.