SIMULASI DINAMIKA STRUKTUR TEGAKAN HUTAN RAKYAT (Kasus Kecamatan Pringsurat Kabupaten Temanggung)

BUDI MURDAWA, Dr. Ir. Nunuk Supriyatno, M.Sc.

2015 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Kehutanan

Hutan rakyat sengon di Pulau Jawa memiliki kontribusi signifikan dalam mengatasi ketimpangan pasokan-permintaan kayu. Karakter pengelolaannya yang multidecision maker mengakibatkan klaster pertanaman sangat beragam. Akan diidentifikasi ragam kondisi tegakan hutan rakyat dan dinamikanya beserta klaster ketidak-pastiannya. Ragam tegakan disederhanakan melalui analisis klaster. Metode simulasi montecarlo digunakan untuk memetakan dinamika tegakan dalam kondisi yang tak deterministik. Metode ini diterapkan berdasarkan data petak ukur permanen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan simulasi monte carlo dapatmemprediksi pergerseran klaster struktur tegakan berdasarkan kondis awalnya. Penerapan simulasi ini memperlihatkan, bahwa apabila tidak ada gangguan sampai tahun ke 10 struktur tegakan cenderung stabil bahkan dengan potensi yang meningkat. Melalui pendugaan struktur tegakan tersebut, dari sisi tandon tegakan (standing stock) pengelolaan hutan rakyat di keamatan Pringsurat menghasilkan tegakan yang lestari .

Sengon community forest is a forest management alternative in Java which has a significant contribution in addressing the supply-demand imbalance raw material timber industry. The multidecision maker management characteristic make various cropping pattern. In this study will be identified variety conditions of the dynamics forest stands along the pattern of uncertainty. This research applies montecarlo simulation method which used to mapping the dynamics of stands in a state that is not deterministic. Variety stands simplified through cluster analysis with the first set of variables forming manifold. Overall this whole method is applied based on data from permanent sample plots were measured in series and observation as well as updating the data with repeated measurements. The results showed that application of montecarlo simulation can predict the shifting pattern based on the circumstances of the first stand structure. Application of this simulation shows that if there is no disruption to its 10 year stand structure tends to be stable even with increased potency. Through the estimation of stand structure, of the standing stock of community forest management in keamatan Pringsurat sustainable growth stems..

Kata Kunci : dinamika tegakan, análisis klaster, simulasi montecarlo