ANALISIS HUBUNGAN TINGKAT PERKEMBANGAN WILAYAH DAN POTENSI RISIKO BENCANA DI KAWASAN BENCANA LUMPUR LAPINDO KABUPATEN SIDOARJO

MOCH SHOFWAN, Dr. Luthfi Muta’ali, M.T.

2014 | Tesis | S2 MAGISTER MANAJEMEN BENCANA

Penelitian ini bertujuan menilai karakteristik dan pola sebaran keruangan potensi tingkat perkembangan wilayah, menentukan karakteristik dan pola sebaran keruangan potensi tingkat risiko bencana, menganalisis dan menyusun model hubungan antara tingkat perkembangan dan potensi risiko bencana. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif-analitik kuantitatif berbasis pada analisis data sekunder Potensi Desa, Kecamatan dalam angka, dan pengamatan lapangan. Lingkup daerah penelitian meliputi seluruh desa di Kecamatan Porong, Kecamatan Jabon, dan Kecamatan Tanggulangin yaitu sejumlah 53 desa. Ada dua kelompok variabel penelitian yaitu variabel perkembangan wilayah dan risiko bencana. Analisis data tingkat perkembangan wilayah menggunakan teknik scalling, potensi risiko bencana menggunakan teknik scoring, model hubungan antara tingkat perkembangan wilayah dan potensi risiko bencana menggunakan tabulasi silang dan uji korelasi Spearman, serta pemetaan keruangan dengan menggunakan perangkat lunak Arcgis. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tingkat perkembangan wilayah di semua zona di Kecamatan Porong, Jabon, dan Tanggulangin sebagian besar (49,1%) tergolong kategori sedang. Potensi risiko bencana di Kecamatan Porong, Jabon, dan Tanggulangin sebagian besar (73,6%) tergolong kategori rendah. Model hubungan antara tingkat perkembangan wilayah dan potensi risiko bencana adalah hasil dari tabulasi silang antara kedua variabel ini. Terdapat (15,1%) desa yang termasuk prioritas utama penanganan, (18,9%) termasuk prioritas kedua, dan sebagian besar sisanya termasuk prioritas penanganan ketiga yaitu sebesar (66%). Terdapat hubungan yang erat dan signifikan antara tingkat perkembangan wilayah dan potensi risiko bencana dengan nilai signif􀁌􀁎􀁄􀁑􀁖􀁌􀀃􀀓􀀏􀀓􀀔􀀔􀀃􀁏􀁈􀁅􀁌􀁋􀀃􀁎􀁈􀁆􀁌􀁏􀀃􀁇􀁄􀁕􀁌􀀃􀄮􀀃􀀠􀀃􀀓􀀏􀀓􀀘􀀃 yang menandakan bahwa semakin tinggi tingkat perkembangan wilayah maka semakin tinggi juga potensi risiko bencana di tiap desa di Kecamatan Porong, Jabon, dan Tanggulangin.

This study aims to assess the characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of regional growth rate potential, determine the characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of potential disaster risk level, analyze and develop models of the relationship between the level of development and potential for disaster risk. This study used a descriptive-analytic quantitative approach based on analysis of secondary data of village potency, sub-district in the figures, and field observations. The scope of the study area includes the entire village in Porong district, Jabon district, and the Tanggulangin district which is the total number is 53 villages. There are two groups of research variables, namely the variable of the region growth and variable of disaster risk. Data analysis on regional growth rate is performed by scaling technique; potential disaster risk analysis is performed by scoring technique; correlation model between regional growth rate and potential disaster risk is performed by cross tabulation and Spearman correlation test; and spatial mapping using ArcGIS software. Research result showed that the regional growth rate in all zones, in Porong district, Jabon district, and Tanggulangin district mostly include in intermediatelevel category (49,1%). Potential disaster risk in Porong district, Jabon district, and Tanggulangin district mostly include in low-level category (73,6%). Correlation model between regional growth rate and potential disaster risk is the result from cross tabulation from these two variables. There are 15,1% of villages include in main priority handling, 18,9% include in second priority handling, and most of them (66%) include in third priority handling. There is a close and significant relation between regional growth rate and potential disaster risk with significant value 0,011 smaller than 􀄮􀀃 􀀠􀀃 􀀓􀀏􀀓􀀘􀀞􀀃 􀁚􀁋􀁌􀁆􀁋􀀃 􀁌􀁖􀀃 􀁌􀁑􀁇􀁌􀁆􀁄􀁗􀁈􀁖􀀃 􀁗􀁋􀁄􀁗􀀃 􀁗􀁋􀁈􀀃 􀁋􀁌􀁊􀁋􀁈􀁕􀀃 regional growth rate, the higher potential disaster risk ini every village in Porong district, Jabon district, and Tanggulangin district.

Kata Kunci : perkembangan wilayah, risiko bencana, korelasi