PENGARUH LIBERALISASI PERDAGANGAN ACFTA UNTUK KOMODITAS UTAMA INDONESIA-CINA PADA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI PERTANIAN INDONESIA
NURLIZA, Prof. Dr. Ir. Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto, MS
2014 | Disertasi | S3 Ekonomi PertanianTujuan antara lain: (i) Menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi dan berkontribusi terhadap Total Factor Productivity (TFP) pertanian dari perdagangan komoditas utama Indonesia-Cina; (ii) Menganalisis justifikasi komoditas strategis perdagangan komoditas utama Indonesia-Cina; (iii) Menganalisis hubungan jangka panjang antara keterbukaan dan PDB riil; (iv) Memperoleh gambaran variasi pertumbuhan ekonomi pertanian Indonesia Memperoleh gambaran variasi pertumbuhan ekonomi pertanian Indonesia. Metode eksplanatory terhadap perdagangan komoditas utama Indonesia-Cina (karet, kopi dan kakao, sawit, dan bawang putih) dari BI, BPS, Kementerian Pertanian, Kementerian Perindustrian dan Perdagangan, Dirjen Tanaman Pangan dan Hortikultura, Dirjen Perkebunan, Departemen Keuangan, Badan Koordinasi Pusat Modal (BKPM), dan Pusat Perdagangan Internasional, PUSDATIN Pertanian, http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca dan penelitian terdahulu periode 2000-2011. Hasil antara lain: (i) Liberalisasi tidak mempengaruhi pertumbuhanTFP; (ii) TFP dipengaruhi secara positif oleh rasio ekspor terhadap produksi, Indeks Harga Produsen, dan dipengaruhi secara negatif oleh nilai tukar (kurs); (iii) Kontribusi faktor-faktor empiris terhadap pertumbuhan Total Faktor Produktivitas (TFP) oleh Indeks Harga Produsen (53,58%) dan rasio ekspor terhadap produksi sebesar 17,41%; sebaliknya nilai tukar menurunkan TFP sebesar 29,01%; (iv) Rerata kontribusi rasio ekspor terhadap produksi perdagangan komoditas terhadap TFP terbesar adalah sawit (2,218%), diikuti kakao (0,329%), kopi (0,102%), dan karet (0,017%); (v) Terdapat hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara rasio impor riil dan ekspor riil dengan investasi mesin dan peralatan pertanian dan total hutang pertanian; (vi) TFP akan turun akibat perubahan rasio impor riil dan ekspor riil, investasi mesin dan peralatan pertanian, dan total hutang pertanian sehingga penyesuaian pada tahun berikutnya memerlukan waktu masing-masing 23-30 bulan, 2,5-8 bulan, dan 19-26 bulan; (vi) Pertumbuhan ekonomi pertanian Indonesia tidak akan mencapai 1,2% lebih tinggi pada tahun berikutnya; struktur kebijakan dan industri telah menjadi beban bagi sektor swasta; peningkatan kinerja ekspor ditopang oleh kenaikan harga komoditas internasional, permintaan ekspor komoditas primer, dan diversifikasi pasar ekspor; stabilitas inflasi inti; perkembangan keuangan yang lemah; dan defisit laju pertumbuhan. Implikasi kebijakan antara lain: (i) Peningkatan pertumbuhan pertanian melalui investasi mesin dan peralatan pertanian produktif, kebijakan infrastruktur, penelitian dan pengembangan, efektifitas sistem keuangan dan efisiensi ekonomi; (ii) Prioritas kebijakan perdagangan ekspor komoditas strategis adalah sawit, kakao, dan karet; (iii) Komoditas karet harus diperbaiki, kakao perlu ditingkatkan, dan sawit harus dipertahankan dan dijaga stabilitasnya; (iv) Perbaikan kinerja perdagangan ekspor karet melalui liberalisasi lembaga karet, penelitian dan pengembangan, pengembangan produk olahan karet, pelatihan dan pengembangan, dan promosi pasar; (v) Intervensi kebijakan komoditas strategis melalui insentif harga; liberalisasi internal pemasaran; adopsi teknologi pengolahan, peningkatan kualitas; akses informasi dan akses pasar produk olahan; peremajaan tanaman dan mekanisasi kepada petani kecil yang baru; dan fleksibilitas pembiayaan kredit ekspor dan instrumen syariah perdagangan komoditas; (vi) Prioritas pada investasi mesin dan peralatan pertanian yang dapat mempengaruhi mekanisme ekspor dan impor secara efektif, dan penanganan hutang; (vii) Kebijakan menjaga kecukupan pasokan, kelancaran distribusi, dan stabilisasi harga pangan; (viii) Upaya stabilitas ekonomi sekarang dan masa mendatang melalui kebijakan moneter dan fiskal secara efektif.
The research attemp to analyze: (i) Determinant factors that influence and contribute to Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of agricultural from commodities trade between Indonesia and China; (ii) Justification of major strategic commodities trade between Indonesia and China; (iii) Long-term relationship between openness and TFP; (iv) Agricultural economy variation description of Indonesia. Explanatory method was used to analyze major commodities trade between Indonesia and China such as rubber, coffee, cocoa beans, palm oil as export commodities and garlic as import commodity. The data was obtained from Central Bank of Indonesia, Statistic Bureau, Ministry of Agricultural, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Directorate General of Food Crops and Horticulture, Directorate General of Plantation, Ministry of Finance, Central Coordinating Board, International Trade Centre, Data and Information of Agricultural Centre, http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca and past research in 2000-2011 periods. The results are: (i) Trade liberalization does not affect economic growth of agriculture (TFP); (ii) TFP is positively influenced by the ratio of exports to production, Producer Price Index, and otherwise adversely affected by exchange rate; (iii) Contribution factors of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth mainly influenced by Producer Price Index (53.58%) and the ratio of exports to production by 17.41%; otherwise lower TFP due to exchange rate by 29.01%; (iv) The biggest average contribution ratio of exports to production for TFP is palm oil (2.218%), followed by cocoa beans (0.329%), coffee (0.102%), and rubber (0.017%); (v) There is long- term equilibrium relationship between the ratio of real imports and real exports with agricultural equipment and machinery investment and total debt; (vi) TFP ratio down due to changes in real imports and exports, agricultural equipment and machinery investment, and total debt so that speed of adjustment in the next year require 23-30 months, 2.5-8 months, and 19- 26 months respectively; (vi) Indonesian agricultural economic growth will reach 1.2 % higher in the next year; and industrial policies structure has become burden to private sector; increase in export performance due to higher international commodity prices, demand for primary commodities, and export markets diversification; stability of inflation core; financial development weakness, and growth rate deficit. There are some policy implications: (i) Agricultural growth should increased through investments in productive agricultural machinery and equipment, infrastructure policy, research and development, effectiveness and economic efficiency of financial system, (ii) Trade policy priority in strategic commodities export such as palm oil, cocoa beans, and rubber; (iii) Rubber commodity should be fixed, cocoa beans needs to be improved, and palm oil should be preserved and maintained its stability; (iv) Export trade liberalization performance was improved through rubber institute, research and development, product development processing, training and development, and market promotion; (v) Strategic commodities policy through price incentives; internal marketing liberalization; processing technology adoption, information access for quality improvement and markets access for refined products; rejuvenation and mechanization for new small farmers, export credit financing flexibility and Islamic instruments commodities trading; (vi) Priority on agricultural equipment and machinery investment that could affect export and import mechanisms effectively, and debt management; (vii) Maintain sufficient supply chain policy, smooth distribution, and food prices stabilization; (viii) Economic stability through monetary and fiscal policies effectively.
Kata Kunci : Liberalisasi Perdagangan, ACFTA, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Total Faktor Produktivitas, Karet, Kakao, Kopi, Minyak Sawit, Bawang Putih, Komoditas Strategis, Variasi Ekonomi.
