EVALUASI KINERJA PORTOFOLIO SAHAM SEKTOR CONSUMER GOODS DI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

Anestia Amelia, Prof. Dr. Marwan Asri., MBA., Ph.D.

2013 | Tesis | S2 Magister Manajemen

Sepanjang tahun 2010-2012 Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) menunjukan pergerakan positif. Memasuki November 2012, indeks mulai kembali menurun, hal ini lebih dikarenakan karena pelaku pasar sudah kembali mengamati isu-isu ekonomi global. Sentimen ketidakpastian kondisi global masih sangat berpengaruh terhadap perdagangan saham di Indonesia. Untuk itu alokasi investasi saham lebih baik pada saham-saham yang berorientasi domestik, seperti: saham sektor perbankan, sektor infrastruktur, sektor consumer goods dan ritel. Sektor consumer goods mampu bertahan dari goncangan krisis dan memberikan prospek yang baik bagi investor, terutama untuk investasi jangka panjang. Saham-saham sektor consumer goods termasuk sektor defensif dan merupakan sektor ekonomi yang terkait dengan hajat hidup orang banyak, sehingga menjadi pilihan utama bagi investor. Sepanjang tahun 2010–2012 saham sektor consumer goods merupakan sektor dengan earnings per share (EPS) tertinggi dibanding sektor-sektor lainnya. Penelitian ini digunakan untuk menguji perbandingan kinerja saham dan portofolio saham-saham consumer goods dengan kinerja IHSG. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan 27 saham sektor consumer goods yang aktif di perdagangkan selama periode 2010-2012. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa selama tiga tahun pengamatan, kinerja saham consumer goods tidak konsisten lebih baik daripada pasar (IHSG), hal ini dikarenakan koofisien korelasi sahamsaham sektor consumer goods yang tidak stabil dari tahun ke tahun. Dilihat dari rata-rata return dan tingkat risiko, komposisi portofolio saham consumer goods mempunyai kinerja yang lebih baik daripada kinerja pasar (IHSG) baik dengan pembentukan portofolio dengan program INVEST maupun dengan metode portofolio equal weight.

During the year 2010-2012 the Stock Composite Index (IHSG) showed positive movements. Entering November 2012, the index started to decline. This was because the market players had started to pay attention on the global economy issues. Uncertainty sentiment on the global condition still had an influence on the stock trading in Indonesia. Therefore, stock investment allocation would be better in the stocks with domestic orientation such as banking sector stock, infrastructure stock, consumer goods stock, and retail stock. The consumer goods sector was able to survive the crisis and provide good prospects to the investors particularly for long term investment. The consumer goods sector stocks includes the defensive sector and is an economy sector that is related to the wellbeings of many; which make it the main option for the investors. During the year 2010-2012 the consumer goods sector became the sector with the highest earnings per share (EPS) compared to the other sectors. This research is used to test the comparison of stock performance and consumer goods stocks portfolio with the IHSG performance. The research was done using 27 consumer goods sector stocks which are actively traded during the period of 2010-2012. The research result showed that in the three years of observations, the consumer goods stock performance was inconsistently better than the market (IHSG), this was due to the instability of consumer goods sector stocks correlation coefficient from year to year. From the average return and risk level, the consumer goods stock portfolio composition had better performance than the market performance (IHSG) both when using INVEST program and equal weight portfolio methods.

Kata Kunci : saham sektor consumer goods, portofolio saham sektor consumer goods, IHSG, kinerja saham dan portofolio saham sektor consumer goods