NILAI PASAR WAJAR SAHAM MILIK PT. BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA (Persero) TBK. PASCA HAK MEMESAN EFEK TERLEBIH DAHULU (HMETD), 2012

Zulkifli, I Wayan Nuka Lantara, Ph.D

2013 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis nilai pasar wajar saham PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. Alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Pendekatan Pendapatan (Income Approach) metoda Diskonto Pendapatan Ekonomi Mendatang (DCF) dan Pendekatan Data Pasar (Market Data Approach) metoda Relative Valuation. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah laporan tahunan (annual report) dan laporan keuangan perseroan yang telah diaudit oleh Kantor Akuntan Publik periode 2007 – 2011. Disamping itu juga menggunakan data presentasi rutin perseroan kepada publik dan investor yang tersedia pada website Perseroan. Data juga diperoleh dari pelayanan pelanggan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) serta situs Bank Indonesia.. Dengan mengaplikasikan model DCF maka dalam mengestimasi nilai dipilih model FCF-Free Cash Flow yang menghasilkan kesimpulan nilai berupa nilai pasar wajar untuk 60 persen saham PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk milik Pemerintah (Mayoritas) per 31 Desember 2012 sebesar Rp1.896,00 (seribu delapan ratus sembilan puluh enam rupiah) per lembar saham dan untuk 40 persen saham PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk milik Masyarakat (Minoritas) per 31 Desember 2012 sebesar Rp1.754,00 (seribu tujuh ratus lima puluh empat rupiah) per lembar saham. Hasil ini telah mengaplikasikan premi kendali sebesar 30 persen dan premi pasar sebesar 20 persen. Pada akhir bagian analisis data juga dilakukan perhitungan nilai dengan menggunakan model Relative Valuation yang menghasilkan Indikasi nilai milik Pemerintah (Mayoritas) per 31 Desember 2012 sebesar Rp1.321,00 (seribu tiga ratus dua puluh satu rupiah) per lembar saham dan untuk saham milik Masyarakat (Minoritas) sebesar Rp1.016,00 (seribu enam belas rupiah). Hasil ini telah mengaplikasikan premi kendali sebesar 30 persen. Rekonsiliasi dari kedua model di atas, dengan bobot model DCF : model Relative Valuation sebesar 60 persen : 40 persen didapat hasil Indikasi nilai milik Pemerintah (Mayoritas) seharga Rp1.666,00 (seribu enam ratus enam puluh enam rupiah) per lembar saham dan untuk saham milik Masyarakat (Minoritas) seharga Rp1.459,00 (seribu empat ratus lima puluh sembilan rupiah), di mana harga milik masyarakat publik ini tidak terlalu berbeda jauh dengan harga penutupan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) per tanggal 31 Desember 2012 sebesar Rp1.470,00 (adj. closed) untuk PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk dengan kode perdagangan BBTN.JK.

This study aims to analyze the fair market value of shares of the PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. The analytical tool used in this study is Income Approach with Discounted Cash Flow method (DCF) and the Market Data Approach Relative Valuation method. The data used in this study are annual reports and the company's financial statements that have been audited by Public Accountant period from 2007 to 2011. Besides, it also used the regular presentation of data to the public and investors the company is available on the Company's website. Data were also obtained from customer service Central Agency on Statistics (BPS) and The Bank Indonesia website. By applying the DCF models in estimating the value of selected models-Free Cash Flow FCF yield the conclusion that the value of the fair market value for the 60 percent stake in PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk., owned by the Government (Majority) per December 31, 2012 amounted to Rp1.896,00 (one thousand eight hundred and ninety-six rupiah) per share and for a 40 percent stake in PT. Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk., owned by Community (Minority) per December 31, 2012 amounted to Rp1.754,00 (one thousand seven hundred and fifty-four rupiah) per share. These results have been applied control premium of 30 percent and 20 percent market premium. At the end of the chapter the data analysis was also performed using a model calculation of Relative Valuation generating Indicative value of the Government (Majority) per December 31, 2012 amounted to Rp1.321,00 (one thousand three hundred and twenty-one rupiah) per share and to share Community owned (Minority) of Rp1.016,00 (one thousand and sixteen rupiah). These results have been applied control premium by 30 percent. A reconciliation of the two models above, with weights DCF models: Relative Valuation models by 60 percent: 40 percent of the value of the results obtained indications of the Government (Majority) for Rp1.666,00 (one thousand six hundred and sixty six rupiah) per share and for Community-owned shares (minority) for Rp1.459,00 (one thousand four hundred and fifty-nine rupiah), which belongs to the general public the price is not too different from the closing price of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) as at December 31, 2012 amounted to Rp1.470,00 (adj. closed) to PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk. with the trading code BBTN.JK.

Kata Kunci : Pendekatan Pendapatan, DCF-FCF, Relative Valuation, Discounted for Lack of Control-DILOC, Discounted for Lack of Marketibility-DILOM, Penilaian Perusahaan Perbankan