ACFTA “KILLING OR THRIVING†AGRICULTURE SECTOR AND ITS EFFECT TOWARDS NATIONAL TAX REVENUES (INDONESIAN CASE)
I Made Nesa Widiada, Prof. Ryuta Ray Kato
2013 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan-
The aim of this paper is to observe the effect of ASEAN – China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) toward agricultural sector, particularly in paddy and maize, national tax revenue, as well as social welfare in Indonesia. Conventional static general equilibrium model is utilized within this paper in order to provide numerical results. Several possible scenarios have been made and simulated in this paper based on the real incoming policy under the framework of ACFTA, in which by the beginning of 2015 import tariff on highly sensitive products such as rice and corn will be reduced by 50%. The most preferable scenario among the other alternatives is that the scenario of reducing the tariff of both paddy and maize by 50% without imposition of any other fiscal policies to balance the government’s budget. Under this scenario, import values of paddy, maize, and other sectors increase by 8.48 million, 9.49 billion, and 40.61 billion rupiah respectively. Final consumption goods, domestic goods as well as final domestic goods of all sectors grow along with the rise on imports. Capital income and labor income improvement in all sectors are also obtained. Meanwhile, the overall tax revenues collected by Indonesia’s government go up by 56.45 million rupiah. This amount is equal to the government budget surplus. The society’s social welfare is maximized as indicated by the significant positive value of the equivalent variation which worth 62.39 billion rupiah. It is also supported by the fact that utility level increases by 90.87 billion rupiah.
Kata Kunci : Asean – China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA), agriculture, tariff, tax revenues, Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), Computable General Equilibrium (CGE).
