POLITIK PERDAGANGAN DI ASIA TENGGARA PASCA KRISIS ASIA 1997

JAMAL, Prof. Dr. Mohtar Mas’oed

2013 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Politik/Hubungan Internasional

Perdagangan antar negara di Asia Tenggara pasca krisis Asia 1997 masih didominasi oleh perdagangan ekstra regional dengan China, Jepang, Amerika Serikat, dan Uni Eropa sebagai mitra dagang utama. Perdagangan intra regional berada di kisaran 25%. Sektor manufaktur memiliki tingkat kontribusi paling besar. Peran dominan sektor manufaktur berkelanjutan sejak 1980-an ketika kawasan tersebut dilanda krisis dan mulai mentransformasi perekonomian dari berbasiskan sektor pertanian menjadi berbasiskan sektor manufaktur yang dipengaruhi oleh foreign direct investment (FDI). Politik domestik berperan penting terhadap terjadinya kenyatan tersebut. Mayoritas pemerintah di Asia Tenggara meyakin bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan sumber penting legitimasi politik. Kelemahan finansial aktor politik melahirkan patronase dengan aktor ekonomi. Patronase tersebut menciptakan konsentrasi aktor bisnis di lingkungan kekuasaan. Krisis Asia 1997 tidak merubah struktur koalisi di Asia Tenggara bahkan di negara yang mengalami perubahan politik pasca krisis 1997, seperti Indonesia dan Thailand. Investasi asing semakin berperan penting sebagai mesin pertumbuhan bersamaan dengan patronase antara aktor bisnis dan politik. Negara mengarahkan pembagian wilayah antara modal asing dan modal domestik. Modal asing diarahkan pada sektor manufaktur dan modal domestik diarahkan pada sektor non manufaktur. Karena kuatnya hubungan antara modal domestik dan patronase politik, kondisi tersebut menyebabkan hambatan bagi pertumbuhan perdagangan intra regional di Asia Tenggara dan FDI memegang peranan penting berkelanjutan pada pertumbuhan perdagangan ekstra regional.

Post 1997 Asian crisis trade among Southeast Asian countries is still dominated by extra regional trade with China, Japan, USA, and European Union as major trading partners. Intra regional trade is counted around 25%. Manufacture sector has the highest contribution in all trade. The dominant role of manufacture sector has happened since 1980s when the region is caught in a crisis and started to transform the economic from agricultural based towards manufacture based driven by foreign direct investment (FDI). The dynamic of domestic politic has played important role in creating the reality. Most of government in Southeast Asia believes that economic growth is important source of political legitimation. Because of political actors’ lack of financial support, it has created a patronage between businesses and politic. Business actor provides it with a concession of policy giving a back up for their economic interest in return. This patronage has created the concentration of business actors around those being in power. Additionally, this patronage has been the way how domestic capital grows. 1997 Asian crisis has not changed the structure of coalition in Southeast Asia even in countries caught in political leadership change such as Indonesia and Thailand. The political leadership change means no much to the change of coalition structure. Furthermore, foreign direct investment is being more and more important as an engine of growth side by side with prolong patronage between business group and politicians. Under the guidance of the state, there is a division of role between foreign capital and domestic capital. Foreign capital is directed towards manufacture sector that domestic capital has not managed so far. And the domestic one is operating in non-manufacture sector. Referring to their financial support, each government has a significant interest to protect domestic capital in order to secure their political legitimation. This is why intra regional trade cannot grow significantly. The trade is driven more by manufacture sectors operated by FDI whose interest is much directed by the need to fulfill their own market out of the region. In addition, the growth of intra regional trade is also dominated by manufacture sectors through intra industry trade. In other words, protectionism policy in non-manufacture sectors presents serious hindrance towards the growth of intra regional trade together with the dominant role played by manufacture sectors under FDI drive.

Kata Kunci : perumbuhan ekonomi, patronase politik, modal domestik, foreign direct investment (FDI), perdagangan intra regional