ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, EKSPOR, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA PERIODE 2003-2012

SARI WAHYUNI, Prof., Dr. Sri Adiningsih, M.Sc.

2013 | Skripsi | ILMU EKONOMI

Penelitian ini menguji hubungan antara foreign direct investment (FDI), ekpor, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia selama periode 2003-2012. Hubungan FDI, ekspor, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dianalisis melalui pengujian kausalitas Granger, impulse response function, dan variance decomposition. Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah vector autoregression (VAR) untuk menemukan hasil ketiga alat analisis. Hasil pengujian kausalitas Granger menunjukkan bahwa hanya terdapat hubungan satu arah antara FDI dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi, FDI dengan ekspor, dan ekspor dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hasil kausalitas Granger menunjukkan growth driven FDI, export driven FDI , dan growth driven export. Hipotesis FDI led growth, FDI led export, dan export led growth tidak terbukti di Indonesia. Hasil impulse response function menunjukkan bahwa kejutan pada GDP direspon positif oleh ekspor dan FDI (FDI sempat merespon negatif pada kuartal dua dan tiga), begitupun respon FDI terhadap kejutan ekspor hingga kuartal dua puluh. Sementara itu, hasil variance decomposition menunjukkan bahwa varian eror FDI mampu dijelaskan dengan cukup kuat oleh kejutan ekspor, varian eror ekspor dapat dijelaskan dengan cukup kuat oleh GDP, sedangkan GDP menunjukkan sebagai variabel yang eksogen.

This study investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, and economic growth for Indonesia over the period 2003-2012 and analyst response of a variable to other variable shock. The model used in this study is vector autoregression (VAR) to find various Granger causal relations, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. The results of Granger causality test show that there is unidirectional causality runs from FDI to growth, exports to FDI, and exports to economic growth. The results of Granger causality show growth driven FDI, export-driven FDI and export driven growth. Hypothesis FDI led growth, export led FDI and export led growth is not evident in Indonesia. The results of impulse response functions show that a shock to GDP positively responded by exports and FDI (FDI had a negative response to the second and third quarters), as well as the response of FDI to export shocks until twenty quarters. Meanwhile, the results of variance decomposition shows that the variance error of FDI can be explained strongly enough by export, then export variance error can be explained strongly enough by GDP, while GDP is exogenous variable.

Kata Kunci : Foreign Direct Investment, Gross Domestic Product, Ekspor, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Granger causality, Impulse Response Function, Variance Decomposition