VALUASI HARGA SAHAM WAJAR PT ASTRA AGRO LESTARI TBK DENGAN METODA FREE CASH FLOW TO THE FIRM

Priyatno, I Wayan Nuka Lantara, S.E., M.Si., Ph.D.

2013 | Tesis | S2 Magister Manajemen

Tesis ini mengulas penerapan model discounted cash flow untuk menentukan nilai intrinsik suatu saham pada perusahaan Astra Agro Lestari yang bergerak dalam di bidang perkebunan kelapa sawit. Langkah-langkah yang dilakukan penulis adalah dengan top-down approach dimulai dengan analisis kondisi lingkungan makro ekonomi serta analisis industri dimana perusahaan beroperasi, kemudian dilanjutkan dengan penilaian perusahaan berdasarkan proyeksi keuangan untuk lima tahun mendatang (2012-2016) hingga didapatkan nilai intrinsik perusahaan. Proyeksi laporan keuangan di buat Free Cash Flow to the Firm, lalu didiskonto untuk mendapatkan value of the firm. Tahap akhir dihitung nilai intrinsic equity per share Rp 21.638 per lembar saham dengan range harga saham wajar Rp. 20.556 - Rp. 22.720. Dari angka tersebut, jika dibandingkan dengan harga saham Astra Agro Lestari di pasar bursa efek Indonesia sebesar Rp. 21.700 pada tanggal 29 Des 2011, maka didapatkan bahwa posisi saham dalam kondisi fairvalued.

This thesis discusses the application of discounted cash flow models to determine the intrinsic value of a share of oil palm plantation company PT Astra Agro Lestari. A top-down approach was taken, starting with an analysis of macroeconomic environment and analysis of the industry in which the company operates. This was followed by an assessment of the company for the financial‟s projections for the next five years (2012-2016) to determine the company's intrinsic value. Projected financial statements were analysed using the Free Cash Flow to the firm approach, and were discounted to obtain the value of the firm. Tthe analysis indicated the intrinsic value of equity per share was Rp. 21,638 with the fair price range was Rp. 20.556 - Rp. 22.720. This value compared with the price of the stock of Astra Agro Lestari on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on 29th December 2011 of Rp. 21.700, suggesting that the stock was curently fairvalued.

Kata Kunci : Discounted Cash Flow, Top Down Approach, Value of the Firm, Intrinsic Equity per Share