ESTIMASI NILAI PASAR WAJAR SAHAM PT ANEKA TAMBANG (PERSERO) TBK. DALAM RANGKA PRIVATISASI MELALUI RIGHT ISSUE TAHUN 2013

Dwi Rahmanto, Dr. I Wayan Nuka Lantara, M.Si.,

2013 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengestimasi nilai pasar wajar saham PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk akhir tahun 2012, terkait dengan rencana pemerintah untuk melakukan privatisasi PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk melalui skema right issue. Nilai pasar wajar saham PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk diperoleh dengan menggunakan beberapa metoda yaitu: discounted cash flow-cash flow to equity model dan relative valuation dengan multiple PER (Price to Earning Ratio), PBV (Price to Book Value) dan P/S (Price to Sale Ratio). Penelitian ini penting dilakukan guna memberikan masukan dan bahan pertimbangan bagi pemerintah saat melakukan right issue serta bermanfaat sebagai tambahan informasi dan referensi bagi investor yang akan berinvestasi di PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk. Data yang diteliti dalam penelitian ini pada metoda discounted cash flow- cash flow to equity model dan relative valuation adalah laporan keuangan dan informasi lain yang terkandung pada laporan tahunan PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk tahun 2006-2011, laporan keuangan perusahaan pembanding, harga saham PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk, dan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Hasil penelitian nilai pasar wajar saham PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk per tanggal 31 Desember 2012 dengan menggunakan metoda discounted cash flow-cash flow to equity model adalah Rp1.371 per lembar saham, dan nilai pasar wajar saham berdasarkan metoda relative valuation adalah Rp1.450 per lembar saham. Hasil rekonsiliasi dari dua metoda ini menghasilkan nilai pasar wajar saham PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk sebesar Rp1.395 per lembar saham. Kisaran nilai pasar wajar sebagai acuan harga jual adalah batas bawah Rp1.290 dan batasatas Rp1.499.

This study aims to estimate the fair market value of the shares of PT Antam (Persero) Tbk by the end of 2012, when the government plans to privatize PT Antam (Persero) through a rights issue scheme. Fair market value of the shares of PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk is obtained using several methods: discounted cash flow–to-equity cash flow and relative valuation models with multiple PER (Price to Earning Ratio), PBV (Price to Book Value) and P/S (Price to Sale Ratio). The importance this study is to provide input and consideration for the government during a rights issue as well as additional useful information and resources for investors who might invest in PT Antam (Persero) Tbk. The data examined in this study on the method of discounted cash flow-toequity cash flow and relative valuation models consist of six financial statements and other information contained in the annual report of PT Antam (Persero) Tbk year 2006-2011, the company's financial statements of comparable firms, price PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk, and the stock price index (CSPI). The results show that the fair market value of the shares of PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) as on December 31, 2012 using the discounted cash flow-cash flow to equity model is Rp1.371 per share, and the fair market value of the shares based on relative valuation methods is Rp1.450 per share. The results of the reconciliation of the two methods produce fair market value of the shares of PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk amounting to Rp1.395 per share. The range of fair market value as is Rp1.290 sale as the lower limit and with upper limit of Rp1.499.

Kata Kunci : nilai pasar wajar saham, discounted cash flow - free cash flow to equity model, relative valuation.