Penilaian Harga Wajar Saham PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, Tbk. dengan Metode Discounted Cash Flow

Mochamad Ichsan Suud, Dr. Supriyadi, M.Sc.

2013 | Tesis | S2 Magister Manajemen

Hasil penelitian Bursa Efek Indonesia menujukkan bahwa harga saham PT. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, Tbk. (“Perusahaan”) di pasar modal pada tanggal 30 September 2011 tergolong mahal. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menghitung harga wajar saham Perusahaan per tanggal 30 September 2011 secara kuantitatif dengan metode Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) model two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity (“FCFE”). Tujuan lainnya adalah untuk mengetahui posisi harga saham Perusahaan di pasar modal pada tanggal 30 September 2011 (undervalued, fair valued atau overvalued) dengan membandingkan harga wajar saham Perusahaan dengan harga saham Perusahaan di pasar modal. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga wajar saham Perusahaan per tanggal 30 September 2011 adalah sebesar Rp 1.910,- per lembar saham. Sementara harga saham Perusahaan di pasar modal pada tanggal 30 September 2011 adalah sebesar Rp 3.700,- per lembar saham. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa harga saham Perusahaan di pasar modal pada tanggal 30 September 2011 berada pada posisi overvalued. Posisi overvalued dari harga saham Perusahaan di pasar modal merupakan indikasi bagi para investor untuk menjual saham Perusahaan. Sementara bagi para calon investor, posisi overvalued harga saham merupakan indikasi tidak layak untuk dibeli.

Indonesian Share Exchange’s reserach resulted that share price of PT. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, Tbk. (“Company”) in the market as of September 30, 2011 was high. The purpose of this study is to value quantitatively the fair price of Company’s share as of September 30, 2011 using Discounted Cash Flow (“DCF”) method with two-stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model. Another purpose is to determine the position of Company’s share price in the maket as of September 30, 2011 (whether undervalued, overvalued or fair valued) by comparing the share’s fair price with its market price. Results shows that the fair price of Company’s share as of September 30, 2011 is at Rp 1.910,- per share. While the market price of Company’s share as of September 30, 2011 was at Rp 3.700,- per share. It shows that the Company’s share price in the market as of September 30, 2011 was overvalued. Overvalued position of Company’s share price in the market is an indication for investors to sell their shares. Meanwhile, it is not feasible for prospective investors to buy Company’s share at overvalued position.

Kata Kunci : Saham, Harga Wajar, Discounted Cash Flow, Overvalued