ANALISIS INTEGRASI PASAR DAN PERMINTAAN LADA INDONESIA DI PASAR DUNIA
ENDAH NURAINI, Prof.Dr.Ir. Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto, M.S.
2012 | Tesis | S2 Ekonomi Pertanian-
This study was aimed to: (1) determine market integration and causality between domestic and international market of pepper, (2) estimate domestic demand for pepper and (3) investigate position of Indonesia as exporter of pepper in the world market. Johansen cointegration analysis and the Engle-Granger approach were applied in analyzing of long-run integration between Indonesia ’s market to other exporters and importers of pepper. Granger causality test was applied to determine the causal relationship between market prices and the price leader country while Error Correction Model (ECM) Test was also applied to determine the short-run integration between Indonesia’s pepper market with other exporters and importers market. Then, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) to determine the factors that influence the demand for pepper exports of Indonesia and analysis of Trade Specialization Index (ISP) was applied to analize Indonesia's position as exporter of pepper in the world market. Annually time series data during the period of 1980 – 2009 were used in analyses. The results of study show that: (1) there is a long-run and short-run integration between Indonesia’s market with other exporters or importers of pepper; (2) Indonesia was found as price leader of market in the United States and the Netherlands (importer) and Malaysia (exporter); (3) the position of Indonesia is found as the first in the world market and followed by Brazil, Malaysia and India as exporter of pepper; (4) demand for Indonesian pepper of the United States is influenced positively by the international real price, the real price of U.S. imports, and the production of Indonesia, otherwise that was negatively influenced by the real price of exports of Indonesia, the export volume of Brazil, exchange rate of the rupiah to the U.S.$ and the economic crisis. Meanwhile demand for Indonesian pepper of Singapore was influenced positively by the international real price, the production of Indonesia, the real price of exports of Indonesia but negatively influenced by the real price of exports of Indonesia and exchange rate of the rupiah to the U.S.$. Then, demand for Indonesian pepper of the Netherlands is influenced positively by the international real price, the production of Indonesia but negatively influenced by the real price of exports of Indonesia, the export volume of Brazil, and exchange rate of the rupiah to the U.S.$. Nevertheless, leader position of Indonesian in the world market should be strengthen polically by increasing support of capital to farmers by government, improving the role of extension workers, and diversification of fresh and processed products of pepper to expand market of Indonesia in the world market.
Kata Kunci : market integration, demand, pepper, the world market
