ELECTORAL VOLATILITY NASIONAL DAN LOKAL: Studi Tentang Stabilitas Sistem Kepartaian Indonesia Pasca Orde Baru

Asep Nurjaman, Drs.,M.Si., Prof. Dr. Ichlasul Amal

2012 | Disertasi | S3 Ilmu Politik

Kondisi electoral hasil pemilu pasca Orde Baru 1999, 2004, dan 2009 menunjukan adanya ketidakstabilan baik di tingkat Nasional maupun lokal Kota dan Kabupaten Malang. Partai-partai yang lolos threshold seperti PDIP, Golkar, PKB, PPP, PAN, PBB terus mengalami penurunan suara dan memunculkan partai baru seperti PKS dan Demokrat (pemilu 2004), Hanura dan Gerindra (pemilu 2009). Tujuan penelitian ini berupaya untuk menganalisis tingginya electoral volatility, perubahan dan keberlanjutan electoral volatility, serta sumber penyebab terjadinya electoral volatility baik di tingkat Nasional maupun lokal Kota dan Kabupaten Malang. Studi ini hanya menganalisis dependen variable yaitu electoral volatility nasional dan lokal, dengan menggunakan pendekatan komparatif. Unsur utama yang diperbandingan adalah indeks electoral volatility baik secara individual (total volatility) maupun blok ideologis (block volatility). Perhitungan total volatility didasarkan pada rumus Pedersen (1979), sementara perhitungan block volatility didasarkan pada rumusan Paul Pening et.al. (2006). Guna mendukung analisis dalam penelitian ini, penulis mempergunakan data agregat hasil pemilu nasional dan lokal yang diperoleh dari Komisi Pemilihan Umum (KPU). Selain data kuantitatif, analisis penelitian ini juga dilengkapi dengan data kualitatif yang diperoleh dari hasil observasi, wawancara mendalam, dan focus group discussion terutama untuk analisis di tingkat lokal. Temuan studi ini menunjukan bahwa electoral volatility Indonesia pasca Orde Baru tergolong tinggi, ada perubahan dan keberlanjutan electoral volatility, serta ada kombinasi penyebab terjadinya sumber electoral volatility baik di tingkat nasional maupun lokal. Rata-rata electoral volatility nasional dari sisi individual partai (total volatility) sebesar 29,15% (pemilu 2004 sebesar 28,55% dan pemilu 2009 sebesar 29,74%). Sementara dari sisi blok ideologis (Islam dan Nasionalis), rata-rata block volatility secara nasional sebesar 6,53% ((pemilu 2004 sebesar 2,22% dan pemilu 2009 sebesar 10,83%). Kondisi electoral volatility nasional tidak jauh berbeda dengan electoral volatility lokal Kota dan Kabupaten Malang. Dari sisi individual partai, ratarata electoral volatility Kota dan Kabupaten Malang (total volatility) sebesar 29,72% dan 22,41%. Di tingkat Kota dan Kabupaten Malang, pada pemilu 2004 electoral volatility sebesar 32,27% dan 27,17% sementara pada pemilu 2009 sebesar 19,82% dan 27,99%. Dari sisi blok ideologis (Islam dan Nasionalis), rata-rata block volatility Kota Malang sebesar 6,47% dengan rincian 2,89% (pemilu 2004) dan 10,05% (pemilu 2009), sementara Kabupaten Malang 7,77% dengan rincian 0,51% (pemilu 2004) dan 15,03% (pemilu 2009). Tingginya electoral volatility Indonesia pasca Orde Baru baik tingkat nasional maupun lokal Kota dan Kabupaten Malang disebabkan oleh kombinasi beberapa faktor: Pertama, faktor Nasional yang terdiri dari sistem pemilu, ambang batas perolehan suara/kursi. Kedua, faktor lokal yang terdiri dari menurunnya dukungan NU dan Muhammadiyah, perpindahan kader dan caleg populer partai. Ketiga, faktor internal partai yang terdiri dari konflik partai, kinerja partai. Keempat, faktor perilaku pemilih: pragmatisme pemilih.

Electoral conditions after the New Order, 1999, 2004, and 2009 show an instability both at the national and local Kota and Kabupaten Malang. Parties that pass the threshold as PDIP, Golkar, PKB, PPP, PAN, the PBB continue to decline and bring the new party like PKS and the Demokrat (election 2004), Hanura and Gerindra (elections 2009) entering the system. The purpose of this study seeks to analyze the high electoral volatility, electoral volatility change and sustainability, as well as the source of the cause of electoral volatility in both the national and local Kota and Kabupaten of Malang. This study only analyzes the dependent variable, namely the national and local electoral volatility, using a comparative approach. The main element is comparing the index of electoral volatility either individually (total volatility) and ideological blocks (block volatility). Calculation of total volatility is based on the Pedersen formula (1979), while the calculation of block volatility based on a formula Paul Pening et.al. (2006). In order to support the analysis in this study, the authors use aggregate data of national and local election results obtained from the General Elections Commission (KPU). In addition to quantitative data, analysis of this study is also equipped with qualitative data obtained from the observation, in-depth interviews and focus group discussion, especially for analysis at the local level. The findings of this study indicate that electoral volatility post-New Order Indonesia is high, there is a change and the sustainability of electoral volatility, as well as any combination of the cause of the sources of electoral volatility in both the national and local level. The average national electoral volatility of the individual parties (total volatility) of 29.15% (28.55% for the 2004 election and 29.74% for 2009 election). In terms of ideological blocks (Islam and Nationalist), the average nationwide block volatility of 6.53% ((2004 election was 2.22% and 2009 election was 10.83%). Conditions electoral volatility is not much different from the national local Kota and Kabupaten Malang. In terms of individual parties, the average electoral volatility of Kota and Kabupten Malang (total volatility) of 29.72% and 22.41%. At the Kota and Kabupaten Malang, the electoral volatility in the 2004 election was 32.27% and 27.17% while in the 2009 election 19.82% and 27.99%. In terms of ideological block (Islam and Nationalist), the average of Kota Malang block volatility was 6.47% with details of 2, 89% (elections 2004) and 10.05% (2009 election), while Kabupaten Malang was 7.77% with the details 0.51% (election 2004), and 15.03% (elections 2009). The high electoral volatility post-New Order Indonesia both national and local level Kota and Kabupaten Malang is caused by a combination of several factors: First, the national factor consisting of the electoral system, the threshold of votes / seats. Second, local factors was the declining support for NU and Muhammadiyah, the movement of popular cadres and party cadres. Third, the party's internal factors consisting of the conflict parties, the performance of the party. Fourth, the voting behavior factors like voter pragmatism.

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