ANALISIS KEUNGGULAN KOMPARATIF PRODUK EKSPOR INDONESIA DAN CINA DALAM MENGHADAPI ASEAN-CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (ACFTA)

Akhmad Jayadi, Dr. Budiono Sri Handoko, M.A.,

2012 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis tren nilai ekspor Indonesia dan Cina ke dunia, serta memetakan keunggulan komparatif dan spesialisasi ekspor produk ekspor kedua Negara. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang dikeluarkan oleh World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), World Bank, tahun 1985 sampai 2010. Data tersebut diolah kembali oleh Pusat Data dan Informasi (Pusdatin) Kementerian Perdagangan (Kemendag) Republik Indonesia. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah uji statistik paired sample t-test, independent sample t-test, serta products mapping dengan menggunakan indeks Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) dan Trade Balance Index (TBI). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa: pertama, nilai ekspor dan surplus perdagangan Cina lebih besar daripada Indonesia. Kedua, keunggulan komparatif dan spesialisasi ekspor produk ekspor Cina lebih tinggi daripada Indonesia. Produk kelompok A Cina lebih banyak daripada Indonesia, sedangkan produk kelompok D Cina lebih sedikit daripada Indonesia. Ketiga, fenomena flying geese lebih tampak terjadi di Cina daripada Indonesia.

This research aims to analyze the trend of export value both Indonesia and China to the world, as well as comparative advantage and export specialization of export product both countries. Data used in this study is secondary data which published by the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) of World Bank, from 1985 to 2010. The data is reprocessed by the Center for Data and Information (Pusdatin) of Ministry of Trade (Kemendag) of Republik Indonesia. Analytical tools applied are paired sample t-test, independent sample t-test, and products mapping using Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) and Trade Balance Index (TBI). The result of this study showed as follows: first, China‟s export value and its trade surplus were bigger than those of Indonesia. Second, comparative advantage and export specialization of China‟s export product were bigger than those Indonesia. Cina‟s export product which categorized as group A was much more than those of Indonesia, meanwhile Cina‟s export product which categorized as group D was less than those of Indonesia. Third, flying geese phenomenon seems happen intensively in Cina than did in Indonesia

Kata Kunci : Ekspor, Keunggulan Komparatif, Spesialisasi Ekspor, Products Mapping, Flying Geese, Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis.