ANALISIS NILAI PASAR WAJAR SAHAM PT LIPPO CIKARANG TBK. TERKAIT UNUSUAL MARKET ACTIVITY TAHUN 2011

Vitna Setya Astuti, Drs. Ahmad Jamli, M.A.,

2012 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Bursa Efek Indonesia menetapkan saham PT Lippo Cikarang (LPCK) masuk dalam kategori Unusual Market Activity (UMA) pada tanggal 1 Agustus 2011. Penetapan UMA ini terkait dengan adanya kenaikan harga dan volume perdagangan saham LPCK yang dinilai bursa berpotensi mengganggu terselenggaranya perdagangan efek yang teratur, wajar dan efisien. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi nilai intrinsik saham PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. dengan menggunakan pendekatan pendapatan metode Discounted Cash Flow /DCF model free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) dan pendekatan pasar (relative valuation) metode pembanding perusahaan tercatat di bursa efek (guideline publicly traded company method). Indikasi nilai yang dihasilkan dari kedua pendekatan tersebut digunakan sebagai dasar menganalisis harga saham PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. dalam periode UMA tersebut apakah wajar atau overvalued/undervalued. Analisis menggunakan metode discounted cash flow dengan model Free Cash Flow To The Firm (FCFF) dilakukan dengan tahapan-tahapan analisis proyeksi penjualan atau pendapatan usaha, proyeksi laporan keuangan, proyeksi arus kas bebas (free cash flow), penentuan tingkat diskonto (WACC), penentuan nilai akhir (terminal value), dan estimasi nilai. Analisis dengan menggunakan metode relative valuation dimulai dengan menentukan perusahaan-perusahaan pembanding dalam bidang usaha yang sama yang tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia selanjutnya memilih dan menetapkan angka pengali (multiples) PER (Price Earning Ratio) dan PBV (Price to Book Value) yang akan digunakan untuk menentukan nilai saham PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. Hasil penelitian berdasarkan perhitungan metode DCF menghasilkan estimasi nilai saham LPCK adalah Rp2.161,75 per lembar saham. Hasil estimasi nilai berdasarkan pendekatan pasar (relative valuation) adalah Rp2.172,74 per lembar saham. Dalam penelitian ini, dilakukan rekonsiliasi nilai untuk memperoleh indikasi nilai intrinsik yang mewakili penggunaan kedua pendapatan tersebut. Rekonsiliasi dilakukan dengan memberi bobot 60 persen atas nilai yang dhasilkan dari penggunaan metode DCF dan bobot 40 persen untuk nilai hasil perhitungan dengan pendekatan pasar. Hasil rekonsiliasi nilai saham LPCK pada periode UMA adalah Rp2.166,15. Berdasarkan ketentuan Bapepam-LK atas perhitungan nilai intrinsik, kisaran nilai wajar saham PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. antara Rp2.003,69 sampai dengan Rp2.328,61. Harga saham PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. per lembar tanggal 1 Agustus 2011 adalah Rp1.390,00. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa harga saham LPCK adalah undervalued.

Indonesia Stock Exchange set the company’s share of PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. (LPCK) into the category of Unusual Market Activity (UMA) on August 1, 2011. Determination of UMA is associated with increasing in stock price and trading volume of LPCK which assessed the implementation of trade exchanges potentially disruptive effects of orderly, fair and efficient. This research aims to estimate the intrinsic value of the shares of PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. by using the income approach method of Discounted Cash Flow / DCF model of free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) and relative valuation method of comparison companies listed on the stock exchange (guideline publicly traded company method). Indication of the intrinsic value generated from both approaches are used as the basis for analyzing the stock price of PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. in UMA period is whether a fair or overvalued / undervalued. Analysis using the method of discounted cash flow model with Free Cash Flow To The Firm (FCFF) is done with the stages: analysis of projected sales or revenues, projected financial statements, the projected free cash flow (free cash flow), the determination of the discount rate (WACC) , determining the final value (terminal value), and estimated value. Analysis using relative valuation begins by determining the relative valuation comparison companies in the same field of business listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and set a number next selecting multiplier (multiples) PER (Price Earning Ratio) and PBV (Price to Book Value) that will be used to determine the value of the shares of PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk.. The results based on the DCF method of calculation yields an estimate of the value of the LPCK share is Rp2.161,75 per share. The results of the estimated value based on relative valuation is Rp2.172,74 per share. In this research, carried out the reconciliation value to obtain an indication of intrinsic value that represents the use of both revenue. Reconciliation is done by giving weight to 60 percent of the value generated from the use of DCF methods and weighting of 40 percent to the value calculated by relative valuation. Results reconciliation of LPCK stock value during the period of UMA is Rp2.166,15. Under the terms of Bapepam-LK is based on the calculation of intrinsic value, the range of fair value of the shares of PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. between Rp2.003,69 and Rp2.328,61. Stock price of PT Lippo Cikarang Tbk. per sheet dated August 1, 2011 is Rp1.390,00. The research concluded that the LPCK stock price is undervalued.

Kata Kunci : nilai intrinsik, nilai pasar wajar, unusual market activity, discounted cash flow, relative valuation, overvalued, undervalued