Estimasi Nilai Wajar Saham PT Kimia Farma Tbk. Dalam Rangka Penawaran Saham Baru Tahun 2011

Hendra Jan Sadarmo Purba, Prof. Dr. Eduardus Tandelilin, MBA.

2011 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan estimasi nilai wajar saham PT Kimia Farma, yang akan melakukan penawaran saham baru sebagai bagian program privatisasi dan untuk memperoleh dana ekspansi perusahaan tahun 2011. Nilai wajar PT Kimia Farma diperoleh dengan pendekatan pendapatan, dengan metode discounted cash flow, free cash flow to the firm model, dan pendekatan pasar dengan metode guideline publicly traded company dengan multiple PER (price to earnings ratio), P/S (price to sales ratio), dan PBV (price to book value ratio). Data yang diteliti berupa laporan keuangan PT Kimia Farma Tbk dari tahun 2005-2009, laporan keuangan perusahaan pembanding tahun 2005-2009, data harga saham PT Kimia Farma Tbk dan perusahaan pembanding, dan data Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Hasil penelitian nilai wajar saham PT Kimia Farma Tbk berdasarkan pendekatan pendapatan (income approach) dengan metode discounted cash flow dengan free cash flow to the firm model adalah sebesar Rp144,48. Pendekatan data pasar (market approach) dengan metode guideline publicly traded company; multiple price/earnings sebesar Rp165,51, price/sales sebesar Rp415,87 dan price/book value sebesar Rp221,51. Hasil rekonsiliasi nilai antara pendekatan pendapatan (income approach) dan data pasar (market approach), disimpulkan nilai wajar per lembar saham PT Kimia Farma Tbk. adalah Rp177,00. Apabila menggunakan kisaran nilai dengan batas bawah dan batas atas, adalah antara Rp163,00 sampai dengan Rp190,00.

The purpose of this research is to estimate the fair value of PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) share; following a sessioned equity offering as part of privatization and expansion of the company by the year of 2011. The fair value of KAEF is derived through income approach with discounted cash flow methodfree cash flow to the firm model, and market approach with guideline publicly traded company method in which PER (price to earnings ratio), P/S (price to sales ratio), and PBV (price to book value ratio) as the multiples. The data analysed are financial statements of KAEF for period 2005 to 2009, financial statements of comparable companies for period 2005 to 2009, KAEF stock price, comparable companies' stock price and Jakarta composite index (IHSG). Results shows that the fair value of KAEF as at December 31st 2010 is Rp144,48 per share using the income approach with discounted cash flow method-free cash flow to the firm model. Price per share via the market approach with guideline publicly traded company method is Rp165,51, Rp415,87 and Rp221,51 for PER, P/S and PBV multiples respectively. The reconciliation value of these approaches is Rp177,00 per share. The fair value range between Rp163,00 to Rp190,00 at the lower limit and upper limit respectively.

Kata Kunci : nilai wajar saham, discounted cash flow, free cash flow to the firm model, guideline publicly traded company.