ESTIMASI NILAI WAJAR EKUITAS PT SEMEN BATURAJA (PERSERO) DALAM RANGKA PRIVATISASI TAHUN 2011

Nurbiyanto, Prof. Dr. Eduardus Tandelilin, MBA.

2011 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ek.Pembangunan

This study aims to estimate the fair value of PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) equity at year end 2010 pursuing to the government‟s privatization plan. The used of various methods in equity fair value estimation could serve as a basis in determining the fair market value of privatizing the above mentioned company. It is important that this research is to be carried out as it occurs in several privatization cases of a state-owned corporation were sold at low price resulting to governments‟ lost. Data examined were the company‟s financial statement, financial statements of comparable company, stock prices of comparable company and Jakarta Composite Index. The methods used to estimate the equity fair value are (1) free cash flow to equity discount models; (2) relative valuations using multiples of price to earnings ratio (PER), price to book value ratio (PBV), price to sales ratio (P/S); and (3) residual income method. It is found that the equity fair value of PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) as per 31st December 2005 were Rp3.649.867.000.000,00 in free cash flow to equity discount model, Rp4.025.169.000.000,00 (relative valuation of PER multiples), Rp2.218.251.000.000,00 (relative valuation of PBV), Rp3.357.970.000.000,00 (relative valuation of P/S ratio) and Rp3.661.709.000.000,00 in residual income method. Thus, the reconciliation value is estimated at Rp3.382.593.000.000,00. The equity fair value for the selling price ranges from Rp3.128.899.000.000,00 for the lower limit and Rp3.636.288.000.000,00 on the upper limit.

This study aims to estimate the fair value of PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) equity at year end 2010 pursuing to the government‟s privatization plan. The used of various methods in equity fair value estimation could serve as a basis in determining the fair market value of privatizing the above mentioned company. It is important that this research is to be carried out as it occurs in several privatization cases of a state-owned corporation were sold at low price resulting to governments‟ lost. Data examined were the company‟s financial statement, financial statements of comparable company, stock prices of comparable company and Jakarta Composite Index. The methods used to estimate the equity fair value are (1) free cash flow to equity discount models; (2) relative valuations using multiples of price to earnings ratio (PER), price to book value ratio (PBV), price to sales ratio (P/S); and (3) residual income method. It is found that the equity fair value of PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) as per 31st December 2005 were Rp3.649.867.000.000,00 in free cash flow to equity discount model, Rp4.025.169.000.000,00 (relative valuation of PER multiples), Rp2.218.251.000.000,00 (relative valuation of PBV), Rp3.357.970.000.000,00 (relative valuation of P/S ratio) and Rp3.661.709.000.000,00 in residual income method. Thus, the reconciliation value is estimated at Rp3.382.593.000.000,00. The equity fair value for the selling price ranges from Rp3.128.899.000.000,00 for the lower limit and Rp3.636.288.000.000,00 on the upper limit.

Kata Kunci : nilai wajar, free cash flow to equity discount models, relative valuation, residual income method.