Mode choice analysis A case study from Bengkalis Resident's Travel

ANDRI, Zulfa, Prof. Dr. Ir. Siti Malkhamah, M.Sc

2010 | Tesis |

As an area located on the east coast of Sumatra, inland waterways become the main the main choice of transportation for people to travel from Bengkalis to Pekanbaru. However since the operation of RORO vessel, resulting the competition between inland waterways and land transportation. This research was conducted in Bengkalis island, Riau Province, to develop mode competition model for routes Bengkalis-Pekanbaru, so that it can be known what factor influence the probability of individuals in choosing a given alternative. This study develops utility model between motorcycle, private car, shuttle car and speedboat. The utility is the function of sociodemographic characteristic and the attractiveness of the alternative. The data were collected by using simple random sampling involving 247 respondents. The survey was carried out at Seri Laksamana port and RORO port. To model the utility, the assignment was made using logit models software called Biogeme. The utility is used to estimate the choice probability for each alternative, using the theory of multinomial logit (MNL) model. It is based on the assumption that the error terms are identically and indepently Gumbel distributed. To check the correlation between modes, independence from irrelevant alternative (IIA) test was proposed. Then statistical tests was proposed to diagnose the validity of IIA using the Likelihood test. Graphical analysis was used to know the change of choice probability when the private user shifts to public transport. The result showed was that the model met IIA test, and therefore it was appropiately analysed by using MNL model. The significant factor influencing mode choice include travel time, travel cost, gender and occupation with 5% level of significant. From the choice probability analysis, 57,71% of trip maker tend to use motorcycle, then shuttle car is the second choice with a percentage of 29,49%, followed by 8,29% choose speedboat, and 4,41% choose private car. The graphical analysis shows that if the travel time of shuttle car is less than travel time of motorcycle, and travel cost of motorcycle approach to the travel cost of shuttle car then the motorcycle user will shift to the shuttle car. Motorcycle users will use the speedboat if travel time of speedboat is faster than travel time of motorcycle, and travel cost of speedboat is almost equal to travel cost of motorcycle.

Kata Kunci : Mode choice,Multinomial logit model,Choice probability