Analysis of users willingness to shift from KRL Jabodetabek economy-AC

TRIFANI, Raditya, Prof. Ir. Sigit Priyatno, M.Sc., Ph.D

2010 | Tesis | S2 Magister Sistem Teknik dan Transportasi

In Jabodetabek area, Electric Rail Train (KRL) especially KRL Economy Non-Air Conditioner (Non-AC) becomes one of mainstay modes for commuters, who are mostly lowincome and captive users. It is because of its cheaper tariff compared to other modes. There are frequent complaints related to the current condition and performance of KRL Economy Non-AC because of several drawbacks ranging from the lack of trip frequency, timeliness, comfort as well as cleanliness and security that are not guaranteed. In the other hand, to increase profits and answer criticism from the society, PT. KCJ that currently still becomes the single operator, has a plan not only in improving the service of KRL Economy Non-AC by replacing its rolling stock into KRL Economy-Air Conditioner (AC), but also in increasing its tariff. This plan can be counterproductive and may lead to rejection from most users. Therefore, this study aims to model and analyze the users’ willingness to shift from KRL Economy Non-AC into KRL Economy-AC if its policy is implemented. Stated preference techniques through interview to 203 KRL Jabodetabek Economy Non-AC users and binary logit model were used to analyze the data with the help of LIMDEP Ver. 7.0 software. From the modeling result, it can be concluded that travel cost (fare) was the most important attribute for users in deciding their willingness to shift. Generally, users placed the trip frequency as the second most important attribute after travel cost (fare), and then comfort (AC availability) and timeliness as the third and fourth most important attributes respectively. As seen from its coefficient value that is very small compared to others, the cleanliness and security attributes were not considered as equally important by the users. From the calculation of model utility and probability, it can be understood that the policy to increase the tariff up to 50 % during the next four semesters without improving the services (1st scenario) will lead to the decrease of users of up to 25 %. If later on the plan to replace KRL Economy Non-AC into KRL Economy-AC will also be implemented, then without improving other service attributes (2nd scenario), the users who want to shift into KRL Economy-AC are only 15 % at 200 % of the tariff increase. While if it were done by improving in all service attributes (3rd scenario), then the users who want to shift will increase up to 26 % at 200 % of the tariff increase.

Kata Kunci : Stated preferences,Binary logit model,Fare increase,Willingness to shift