Parameter estimation and behaviour model for mode choice in Yogyakarta using multimonial logit model application and log likehood function

SUMARJAYA, Putu, Prof. Ir. Sigit Priyanto, M.Sc., Ph.D

2009 | Tesis | S2 Magister Sistem dan Teknik Trasportasi

Mode choice modeling is the main part in planning part in transportation analysis. Many methods have been implemented in the mode choice modeling. One of the method which common for this modeling is discrete choice model. In this model using utility maximization principle which is people will choice alternative with highest utility. Mode choice modeling using discrete choice principal has been use to model people behavior about mode choice in Yogyakarta. This model tries to know the each parameter which effect mode alternative utility in Yogyakarta in order to give information to the decision maker if want to make some policy about improvement transportation condition. Because Because of that the aim of this research is studying the behavior model especially the discrete model in field of the mode choice model. The thesis want to know what parameters are effect the decision maker to choice the mode alternative and how big they influence the decision maker. This research consists of both theoretical research and practical analysis. The theoretical research introduce the reader to the logit and nested logit model, as weel as possible method related to the parameter estimation using log like hood estimation procedure and also method about goodness of fit analysis in order to know how the model fit the model. The practical analysis is performed by a linear logit model in this case multinomial logit. The model analysis is based on the data which resulted from the combine between stated preference and revealed preference survey. The researcher have used BIOGEME (Bierlaire’s Optimization Toolbox for GEV Model Estimation) to estimate the parameter of the variable in the utility function which is used in the logit model. The value of time of each alternative also analyzes to give picture about tradeoff between time and cost of each alternative. The result show that the taxi has highest value of time rather than the other mode due to fact that people expect fast travel time by pay more cost if using Taxi.

Kata Kunci : Log likehood function,Discrete model,Behavior model