Evaluasi kelayakan investasi relokasi offtake station natural gas Porong

SURYONO, Agus, Sukmawati Sukamulja, Prof., Dr

2009 | Tesis | S2 Magister Manajemen

Natural gas yang disalurkan melalui jaringan pipa distribusi PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk SBU Distribusi II Jabati merupakan salah satu bahan bakar andalan yang dipergunakan oleh sebagian Industri dan masyarakat Jawa Timur, Ketersediaan dan kontinuitas penyaluran natural gas merupakan syarat mutlak bagi Industri untuk berproduksi dan masyarakat untuk memasak. Bencana lumpur Lapindo yang terjadi di daerah Porong Sidoarjo mulai tahun 2006 memnyebabkan terjadinya land subsidence pada Offtake Station Porong merupakan fasilitas pengatur tekanan dan aliran dalam menyalurkan natural gas, resesi ekonomi dunia pada akhir tahun 2008 menyebabkan turunya pemakaian energi dan turunya harga minyak yang dapat menyebabkan bahan bakar substitusi seperti natural gas. Kemungkinan penurunan pendapatan menyebabkan perusahaan memerlukan evaluasi keuangan untuk menentukan kelayakan relokasi Offtake Station Porong. Hasil peneilitan dengan menggunakan berbagai kondisi penjualan dan harga dengan menggunakan asumsi tingkat suku bunga yang diharapkan sebesar 14,5 % Per tahun (5 % diatas bunga SBI) diperoleh hasil Net Present Value postip dengan besaran Rp. 868.111 juta sampai dengan 5,443.737 juta, Internal Rate of Return Penjualan pesimis pada berbagai tingkat harga sebesar 450 % sampai dengan 772 %, profitability Index sebesar 21,69 sampai dengan 134,36. Hasil sensitivitas menunjukan bahwa relokasi offtake Porong layak dilaksanakan namun perubahan cash flow sangat elastis terhadap perubahan volume penjualan dan harga. Hasil analisis scenario menunjukan bahwa relokasi offtake Porong layak dilaksanakan namun menghasilkan koefisien investasi yang kecil disebabkan variabilitas perubahan harga. Hasil Analisis mean-deviasi nilai NPV postip sebesar Rp. 6.520.208 juta artinya investasi layak dilaksanakan namun probalitas NPV < 0 adalah 50 % risiko yang disebabkan variabilitas atau perubahan cash flow adalah resiko moderat.

Natural gas distributed by PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk SBU Distribusi Jabati II is one of the fuels that are used by the industry and the community in East Java. Supply and continuity natural gas distribution is the absolute requirement for industry to be in production and people to cook. Lapindo mud disaster that occurred in the Porong Sidoarjo area began in 2006 caused the land subsidence Porong Offtake Station, offtake Station arrange pressure and flow natural gas distribution. The global economic crisis in the end of 2008 caused the decline in energy and decrease, the price of oil that can cause the fuel substitution such as natural gas. Probability of decrease in revenue cause the company requires a financial review to decide the feasibility of relocation Off Take Station Porong. Selling project, the gas pricing and the cost obtained by processing the historical data that is UCL (Upper Level Confidence), is used as an optimistic projection conditions, forecast used as the normal projection conditions and LCL (Low Confidence Level) is used as a pessimistic projection condition. Results of research using a variety of sale and price conditions with the assumption of the expected interest rate is of 14.5% per year (5% above the SBI’s interest) results obtained positive net present value with the amount of IDR.868.111 million to the IDR.5,443.737 million, internal rate of return on various pessimistic sales price of 450% to 772%, probability index of 21.69 to 134.36. Sensitivity results indicate that relocation Off Take Porong feasible, but changes in cash flow is very elastic to changes in sales volume and price. Scenario analysis results showed that the relocation Off Take Porong feasible, but the three coefficients with the coefficient of investment is the biggest investment on the price situation is optimistic. Analysis results meandeviation value of positive NPV means IDR.6520208 million investment feasible, probability NPV <0 is 50% because of the risk variability or changes in cash flow is moderate risk.

Kata Kunci : Bencana lumpur,Relokasi off take,NPV,IRR,Payback period,Profitability index,Analisis sensitivitas,Analysis skenario,Mud Disarter, off Take Relocation, Investment, NPR, IRR, Payback Period, Profitability Index, Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis