Pengestimasian nilai ekuitas PT Bank Tabungan Negara tahun 2008

SUMARYADI, Hardi, Prof. Dr. Eduardus Tandelilin, M.B.A

2009 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ekonomika Pembangunan

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengestimasi nilai (intrinsik) ekuitas PT Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) tahun 2008. Terkait dengan rencana pemerintah untuk melakukan privatisasi BTN, nilai ekuitas estimasian yang didapatkan dengan beberapa metode dapat digunakan sebagai acuan bagi pemerintah dalam menetapkan harga jual wajar PT BTN dalam proses privatisasi. Penelitian ini penting dilakukan karena adanya beberapa kasus privatisasi BUMN yang dijual dengan harga murah sehingga menimbulkan kerugian bagi negara. Data yang diteliti berupa laporan Keuangan PT Bank Tabungan Negara dan informasi lain yang terkandung dalam Annual Report PT Bank Tabungan Negara, laporan keuangan perusahaan pembanding, data harga saham perusahaan pembanding, dan data Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Metode analisis yang digunakan untuk menentukan nilai (intrinsik) ekuitas adalah metode discounted equity cash flow, discounted excess equity return dan relative valuation dengan multiples PER (price to earning ratio) dan PBV (price to book value ratio), sehingga berdasarkan beberapa metode tersebut diperoleh kisaran nilainya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa estimasi nilai ekuitas PT BTN berdasarkan metode discounted equity cash flow adalah sebesar Rp6.840.101.000.000, metode discounted excess equity return adalah sebesar Rp6.730.426.000.000, metode relative valuation dengan PER adalah sebesar Rp7.532.812.000.000, dan metode relative valuation dengan PBV adalah sebesar Rp6.163.640.000.000, sehingga kisaran nilai ekuitasnya antara Rp6.163.640.000.000 sampai dengan Rp7.532.812.000.000.

The objective of this research is to estimate equity (intrinsic) value of PT Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) in 2008. On occasion of the government’s plan to privatize BTN, the estimated equity intrinsic values obtained from several methods can be used by the government as references in determining BTN’s fair price in privatization process. This research is important to conduct because several state-owned companies were sold at low price in several prior privatization cases. These cases have caused considerable losses for the state. The data observed in this research are PT BTN’s financial reports and some contained information in BTN’s Annual Report, financial reports of comparable state-owned banks, historical stock price of comparable state-owned banks, and historical price of composite index. This research employs some estimation methods namely discounted equity cash flow method, discounted excess equity return method, and relative valuation method with PER (price to earning ratio) and PBV (price to book value ratio), so that the range of equity intrinsic value can be determined based on the methods employed. This research shows that estimated equity (intrinsic) values of BTN are Rp6,840,101,000,000 based on discounted equity cash flow method, Rp6,730,426,000,000 based on discounted excess equity return method, Rp7,532,812,000,000 based on relative valuation with PER (price to earning ratio), and Rp6,163,640,000,000 based on relative valuation with PBV (price to book value ratio). Thus, equity intrinsic value of BTN ranges from Rp6,163,640,000,000 to Rp7,532,812,000,000.

Kata Kunci : Nilai (Intrinsik) ekuitas,Discounted equity cash flow,Relative valuation, equity (intrinsic) value, discounted equity cash flow, discounted excess equity return, relative valuation