Population Growth and Economic Growth :: The case study of Indonesia

SUYANTO, Koji Kotani, PhD

2008 | Tesis | S2 Magister Ekonomika Pembangunan

This p^er examines correlation between population growth and economic growth in Indonesia by adding lagged fertility and net-migrants as potential explanatory variables. In this way, we differentiate the short run and long run effects of population growth on economic growth. Since extensive migration policies have been taken nationwide in Indonesia, we hypothesize that adding net migrants in the regression as a new control could significantly affect the correlation between the two variables. The results suggest that lagged fertility docs not affect the two-variable analysis. Once net-migrants arc incorporated into a regression model, we obtain the significance of negative correlation between population growth and economic growth. The results not only support both Malthusian and Non-Malthusian schools of thought but also suggest that net migrants are key determinants to be controlled to analyze economic growth in Indonesia. Key Words: Economic Growth, Population Growth, Lagged Fertility, Net-Migrants Growth

Kata Kunci : Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Pertumbuhan populasi