Analisis prakiraan produksi dan konsumsi beras Indonesia

ANDANI, Apri, Prof. Dr. Ir. Masyhuri

2008 | Tesis | S2 Magister Manajemen Agribisnis

Penyediaan pangan demi memenuhi kebutuhan manusia dapat ditempuh melalui penyelenggaraan proses produksi. Namun kebutuhan akan pangan hanya dapat terpenuhi secara swasembada jika pasokan pangan lebih tinggi dari total konsumsi. Kecenderungan yang semakin menurun pada pertambahan produksi beras Indonesia menjadi permasalahan yang harus segera diatasi, mengingat konsumsi terus bertambah karena pertambahan jumlah penduduk. Tujuan penelitian Analisis Prakiraan Produksi dan Konsumsi Beras Indonesia adalah untuk mengetahui seberapa besar kemampuan penyediaan pangan domestik (tidak termasuk impor) dibandingkan dengan konsumsi pangan secara nasional. Untuk menjawab tujuan tersebut, maka dilakukan analisis prakiraan dengan menggunakan metode Box-Jenkins model ARIMA. Hasil prakiraan menunjukkan bahwa produksi beras mengalami kenaikan setiap tahun sejak tahun 2008-2012. Kenaikan rata-rata sebesar 700 ribu ton per tahun disebabkan oleh bertambahnya luas lahan panen serta meningkatnya produktivitas lahan. Di sisi lain, konsumsi beras nasional secara agregat juga mengalami peningkatan rata-rata sebesar 450 ribu ton setiap tahun. Pada tahun 2012 konsumsi beras nasional diperkirakan akan mencapai 33 juta ton lebih. Jumlah penduduk yang terus bertambah mengakibatkan konsumsi beras per kapita, yang menunjukkan gejala penurunan setiap tahun dari 134 kg/kapita pada tahun 2005 menjadi hanya 130 kg/kapita pada tahun 2012, tidak memberikan dampak apa-apa terhadap konsumsi total.

The provisions of food in order to satisfy the requirement for humankind could be followed through the implementation of the process of agriculture production. However the requirement for food could only be fulfilled self-sufficiently if food supplies were higher than the total consumption. The trend that increasingly descended in the increase of the Indonesian rice production was the problem that immediately must be overcome. This was caused by consumption that continued to improve as resulting from the increase in the number of inhabitants. The aim of the research of Forecast Analysis of Indonesian Production and Rice Consumption was to know as big provisions capacity of domestic food (not including the import) compared with consumption of food nationally. To answer this aim, then was carried out by the analysis of the forecast by using the method of Box- Jenkins with the ARIMA model. The forecast result showed that the production of rice rise every year since the year of 2008-2012. The rise in general as big as 700 thousand ton per year was caused by the increase of the harvest land area as well as the increase in the productivity of the land. On the other hand, national rice consumption in aggregate also increased in general as big as 450 thousand ton every year. During 2012 consumption of the national rice was estimated will reach 33 million ton more. The number of inhabitants that continued improve resulted in consumption of the rice per capita, that showed a declined sign every year from 134 kg/capita during 2005 to only 130 kg/capita during 2012, did not give an impact anything towards total consumption.

Kata Kunci : Produksi beras,ARIMA,Box Jenkins,Forecast, ARIMA, Production, and Consumption