Estimasi prevalensi kecelakaan lalu lintas dengan metode Capture-Recapture di Propinsi DIY tahun 2006
UTAMA, Sayekti Udi, dr. Rahardyan Magetsari, Ph.D.,SpOT.,FICS
2007 | Tesis | S2 Ilmu Kesehatan Masyarakat (Epidemiologi LapangaLatar Belakang : Kecelakaan merupakan masalah kesehatan di dunia. Tahun 2002 penyebab kecelakaan yang banyak menimbulkan kematian adalah kecelakaan lalu lintas (22,8%). Tahun 2003-2005 jumlah kecelakaan lalu lintas di D.I. Yogyakarta cenderung menurun namun tingkat fatalitas dan rasio kecelakaan dengan jumlah korban yang ditimbulkan cenderung meningkat. Di Indonesia, setiap kejadian kecelakaan lalu lintas terdapat 2 kemungkinan pencatatan, yaitu : apabila kecelakaan lalu lintas ditangani pihak kepolisian data akan tercatat di kepolisian dan rumah sakit, namun apabila tidak ditangani pihak kepolisian maka data akan tercatat di rumah sakit namun belum tentu tercatat di kepolisian. Di Propinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta data kecelakaan lalu lintas baru merujuk pada catatan Ditlantas Polda Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, sehingga data kecelakaan lalu lintas belum tentu menggambarkan kejadian yang sebenarnya. Tujuan : untuk mendapatkan estimasi prevalensi kecelakaan lalu lintas dengan menggabungkan sumber data dari kepolisian dan rumah sakit di Propinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta tahun 2006. Metode Penelitian : Penelitian ini merupakan studi deskriptif dengan rancangan survei. Lokasi penelitian di Propinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Waktu penelitian pada bulan Mei-Agustus 2007. Hasil penelitian dianalisis dengan metode capture-recapture. Entry data dan perhitungan analisis data dilaksanakan dengan mempergunakan program komputer berbasis Web dengan bahasa pemrograman PHP (Personal Home Page) dan data base disimpan ke dalam myqsl. Hasil : Data yang dianalisis terdiri dari 1.721 data berasal dari 5 Polres/Poltabes dan 5.422 data dari 22 RSU dengan data sama sebanyak 751 data. Kelengkapan data kepolisian 100% sementara rumah sakit belum selengkap kepolisian. Cakupan data kepolisian 13,9% dan rumah sakit 43,7%. Hasil analisis diperoleh Prevalensi kecelakaan lalu lintas dengan sumber data kepolisian 51 per 100.000 penduduk, rumah sakit 161 per 100.000 penduduk, sedangkan prevalensi hasil estimasi dengan metode capture-recapture 369 per 100.000 penduduk (12.417 kasus - 95% CI : 11.799-13.035), dengan prevalensi terbanyak pada laki-laki, umur 16-25 tahun, alamat korban dan lokasi kejadian di Kabupaten Sleman. Kesimpulan : Estimasi prevalensi kecelakaan lalu lintas dengan mempergunakan metode capture-recapture di Propinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta tahun 2006 sebesar 369 per 100.000 penduduk, lebih besar 2,28 kali dibandingkan data rumah sakit dan lebih besar 7,2 kali dibandingkan data kepolisian dengan potensi data kurang (under reporting) di kepolisian 724% dan rumah sakit 229%.
Background: Accident is a global health problem. In 2002 the major cause of accident leading to death is road accident (22.8%). In 2003 – 2005 the number of road accidents in the Province of Yogyakarta Special Territory is decreasing; however the fatality and ratio of road accident and the number of victims are increasing. In Indonesia there are 2 kinds of reporting made whenever there is a road accident. When the accident is handled by the police, data are kept at the police office and hospital; however, when it is not handled by the police, data are kept only at the hospital, not at the police office. In the Province of Yogyakarta Special Territory data of road accident are based on the report of Traffic Office of Yogyakarta Special Territory Regional Police so that they may not reflect the actual road accidents. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of road accidents by combining data sources from both the police and hospital at the Province of Yogyakarta Special Territory 2006. Method: This was a descriptive study with survey design. It was carried out at the Province of Yogyakarta Special Territory from May to August 2007. Analysis was made using capture-recapture method. Data entry and calculation were carried out using web-based computer program with Personal Home Page language programming and the database was maintained in MySQL. Result: There were as many as 1,721 data from 5 district police office/big city police office and 5,422 data from 22 hospitals and there were as many as 751 similar data. Data from the police office were 100% complete and from hospitals were not as complete as those from the police office. Coverage of data from the police office was 13.9% and from hospitals was 43,7%. The result of the study showed that the prevalence of road accident based on data from the police office was 51 per 100,000 people and from the hospilal was 161 per 100,000 people; whereas the prevalence of the result of estimation using capture-recapture method was 369 per 100,000 people (12,417 cases – 95% CI:11.799-13.035) with highest prevalence for male of 16 – 25 years old, living and having road accidents at Sleman District. Conclusion: The estimation of the prevalence of road accident using capture-recapture method at the Province of Yogyakarta Special Territory in 2006 was 369 per 100,000 people, 2.28 times greater than data of hospitals and 7.2 times greater than data of the police office with under reporting as much as 724% at the police office and 229% at hospitals.
Kata Kunci : Surveilans Epidemiologi,Kecelakaan Lalu Lintas,Metode Capture Recapture
