An Investment analysis of Weir Group PLC

NUGROHO, Yuriya, Bill Collins

2005 | Tesis | Magister Manajemen

Studi ini bertujuan menganalisa potens i investasi terhadap saham Weir Group plc, perusahaan engineering UK yang telah listed di London Stock Exchange sejak tahun 1947, dengan melakukan analisa investasi terhadap kinerja Group. Studi ini dilakukan untuk memberi rekomendasi apakah perusahaan ada di posisi buy rating atau sell rating. Tujuan dari analisis ini dicapai melalui penggunaan dua pendekatan dasar analisa investasi: analisa fundamental dan teknikal. Analisa fundamental diawali dengan menganalisa kondisi ekonomi dan industri dimana Group beroperasi, untuk memperoleh pemahaman tentang faktor-faktor lingkungan yang mempengaruhi kinerja Group selama periode analisa. Ekspansi ekonomi menunjukkan kondisi yang optimis terhadap kinerja saham di pasar modal. Namun kompetisi yang ketat dan pasar yang semakin fragmented pada industri engineering memberi signal yang sebaliknya. Melalui evaluasi terhadap kinerja Group selama periode review, kemudian berbagai asumsi dibangun untuk menilai Group and membuat forecast terhadap prospek dan risk dimasa mendatang. Evaluasi berdasarkan analisa teknikal dilakukan dengan menggunakan grafik dan figure harga saham, untuk memberikan hasil valuasi yang lebih komprehensif. Analisa fundamental memberi signal yang optimis. Dimana intrinsik value dari Group dinilai fair oleh pasar. Harga saham diperkirakan antara range 314p sampai dengan 336p, dimana harga saham dipasar adalah didalam range tersebut (322p pada June 2005). Analisa teknikal memberi signal yang sepadan, yang menunjukkan pasar semakin optimis terhadap saham tersebut dengan menunjukkan grafik tren menaik (optimis). Sebuah rekomendasi kemudian dibangun berdasarkan hasil evaluasi. Saham Group dinilai sebagai kategori buy rating dimana direkomendasikan kepada investor untuk “simpan” atau “beli”

In the stock market, a company with leading market share, brands and management is one characteristic of a safe investment; however, this circumstance doe s not always assure that it is worth owning. Investment analysis is then performed as a necessity to obtain the healthy investment. Investment analysis allows valuing accurately a company’s share prospect. Through several investigations, the analysis clearly reveals the value drivers for superior investment. In the study that took Weir Group plc as the case, the dissertation tries to analyze an investment potential of the Group by generating an assessment over the Group’s performance for potential investors. The dissertation is conducted to produce a reliable and sound recommendation as to whether the Group is a “Buy Rating” or “Sell Rating”. The aim of the analysis is reached through the use of two basic approaches of investment analysis – Fundamental and Technical analysis. Starting from analyzing the economic and industry condition where the Group is mainly operating, the first step of fundamental analysis is being held to enable an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the Group performance during the review period. The economic expansion outlook, of fers an optimistic circumstance toward the share. However, the fierce competition and fragmented market of the industry’s sectors have offset that favorable signal. Finally, through assessing the Group performance, the assumptions are developed in order to value the Group and forecast its future prospect and risk. Evaluation based on ivthe technical analysis by using the charts is conducted as well to present the final comprehensive valuation result. From the fundamental analysis overview, the Group had a favourable performance during the review period. The intrinsic value of the Group has been fairly valued by the market. The Group share price is estimated at the price range of 314p to 336p, in which this range covers the price in the market as 322p (per June 2005). In addition, technical analysis views the market is more bullish toward the share by showing the buoyant trend chart patterns. Therefore , a recommendation, regarding the evaluation result, is made. From the analysis, the Group share was considered as “a buy rating” in which is recommended to hold or buy.

Kata Kunci : Manajemen Investasi,Analisis Fundamental dan Teknikal,Saham Weir Group PLC