Penggunaan analisis teknikal indikator Adaptive Trend and Cycles Following (AT and CF) dalam transaksi valuta asing di Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market

MARLIAN, Sukma Raga, Sukmawati, Prof.Dr.,MM

2005 | Tesis | Magister Manajemen

Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji keefektifan penggunaan analisis teknikal indikator Adaptive Trend dan Cycles Following (AT&CF) dalam transaksi valuta asing di Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market untuk memprediksi arah pergerakan nilai tukar valuta asing. Data penelitian memakai historical chart dari nilai tukar mata uang Euro terhadap US Dollar berupa grafik 4 jam selama kurun waktu 11 (sebelas) bulan, mulai tanggal 1 Januari 2005 sampai dengan 30 November 2005. Ketujuh alat teknikal berupa grafik indikator Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL), Slow Adaptive Trend Line (SATL), Range Bounce Channel Indeks (RBCI), Refererence Fast Trend Line (RFTL), Reference Slow Trend Line (RSTL), Fast Trend Line Momentum (FTLM), Slow Trend Line Momentum (STLM) diperoleh dari program aplikasi Metatrader dan Trading Dimensions. Hasil penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa keenam indikator Adaptive Trend dan Cycles Following (AT&CF) kecuali Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL) dalam kurun waktu 11 bulan mampu memberikan return yang relatif tinggi untuk berinvestasi di pasar valas, yakni Slow Adaptive Trend Line (SATL) sebesar 56,6%, Range Bounce Channel Indeks (RBCI) sebesar 24,5%, Refererence Fast Trend Line (RFTL) sebesar 19,7%, Reference Slow Trend Line (RSTL) sebesar 16,3%, Fast Trend Line Momentum (FTLM) sebesar 4,6%, Slow Trend Line Momentum (STLM) sebesar 60,5%, sedangakan Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL) memperoleh kerugian sebesar 47,2%. Kata kunci: analisis teknikal, Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL), Slow Adaptive Trend Line (SATL), Range Bounce Channel Indeks (RBCI), Refererence Fast Trend Line (RFTL), Reference Slow Trend Line (RSTL), Fast Trend Line Momentum (FTLM), Slow Trend Line Momentum (STLM)

This research was intended to test the effectiveness of indicator of technical analysis, namely Adaptive Trend and Cycles Following (AT&CF) in transaction of foreign currency in Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market, in predicting the direction of exchange fluctuation. The data used in this research wa taken from historical chart of Euro exchange value toward US Dollar in the form of four hours chart for 11 (eleven) month starting from 1 January 2005 to 30 November 2005. The seven of technical tools in the form of indikator chart Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL), Slow Adaptive Trend Line (SATL), Range Bounce Channel Indeks (RBCI), Refererence Fast Trend Line (RFTL), Reference Slow Trend Line (RSTL), Fast Trend Line Momentum (FTLM), Slow Trend Line Momentum (STLM) were obtained from Metatrader and Trading Dimensions. The result of this study concluded that the six indicator of Adaptive Trend and Cycles Following (AT&CF) except Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL) in the eleven Month could give relatively high returns for investing in the forex market, Slow Adaptive Trend Line (SATL) reaching 56,6%, Range Bounce Channel Indeks (RBCI) reaching 24,5%, Refererence Fast Trend Line (RFTL) reaching 19,7%, Reference Slow Trend Line (RSTL) reaching 16,3%, Fast Trend Line Momentum (FTLM) reaching 4,6%, Slow Trend Line Momentum (STLM) reaching 60,5%, while Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL) obtaining loss - 47,2%. Key words: Technical Analysis, Fast Adaptive Trend Line (FATL), Slow Adaptive Trend Line (SATL), Range Bounce Channel Indeks (RBCI), Refererence Fast Trend Line (RFTL), Reference Slow Trend Line (RSTL), Fast Trend Line Momentum (FTLM), Slow Trend Line Momentum (STLM)

Kata Kunci : Transaksi Valuta Asing,Adaptive Trend and Cycles Following,Fluktuasi Nilai Tukar,