Daya Saing Ekspor Cocofiber Indonesia di Pasar Tiongkok

Kemal Hafizhan Zulkarnain, Gilang Wirakusuma, S.P., M.Sc. ; Arini Wahyu Utami, M.Sc., Ph.D

2026 | Skripsi | SOS.EK. PERTANIAN (AGROBISNIS)

Penelitian ini disusun untuk menganalisis daya saing cocofiber Indonesia di pasar Tiongkok, mengukur tren volume ekspor cocofiber Indonesia di pasar Tiongkok, dan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi volume ekspor cocofiber Indonesia di pasar Tiongkok. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder kuartalan periode 2013-2025 yang bersumber dari UN Comtrade, World Bank, Trademap, dan FRED, dengan metode dasar deskriptif analitis. Daya saing dianalisis menggunakan Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), dan Export Competitiveness Index (ECI), sedangkan tren volume ekspor dianalisis melalui model tren linear, kuadratik, kubik, dan kuartik dengan metode Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Adapun faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi volume ekspor dianalisis menggunakan regresi linear berganda dengan pendekatan Newey-West standard errors. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa cocofiber Indonesia memiliki keunggulan komparatif di pasar Tiongkok, dengan rata-rata RCA sebesar 2,46 dan RSCA sebesar 0,30, meskipun posisinya masih berada pada kuadran Retreat dalam matriks EPD. Nilai rata-rata ECI sebesar 1,04 tetap mengindikasikan bahwa daya saing tersebut cenderung menguat dalam jangka panjang. Model tren kuartik terbukti paling mampu merepresentasikan pola volume ekspor (Adjusted R² = 0,3122), dengan tiga titik balik yang teridentifikasi pada kuartal I-II 2015, kuartal III 2019, dan kuartal I-II 2024. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa harga ekspor cocofiber Indonesia ke Tiongkok berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, sedangkan harga ekspor cocofiber India ke Tiongkok dan total nilai impor cocofiber Tiongkok dari dunia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. Sementara itu, GDP Tiongkok dan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap Dolar Amerika Serikat tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume ekspor cocofiber Indonesia ke Tiongkok.

This study set out to examine the competitiveness of Indonesian cocofiber in the Chinese market, trace the trend in Indonesian cocofiber export volume to China, and identify the factors behind the fluctuation in that export volume. Quarterly secondary data spanning 2013-2025 were drawn from UN Comtrade, the World Bank, Trademap, and FRED, and analyzed using a descriptive-analytical approach. Competitiveness was assessed through Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), and Export Competitiveness Index (ECI), while the export volume trend was estimated using linear, quadratic, cubic, and quartic models via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The factors influencing export volume were examined through multiple linear regression with Newey-West standard errors. The findings indicate that Indonesian cocofiber holds a comparative advantage in the Chinese market, with an average RCA of 2.46 and RSCA of 0.30, even though it falls within the Retreat quadrant of the EPD matrix. The average ECI of 1.04 nonetheless points to a gradual strengthening of competitiveness over the long run. The quartic model offered the best fit for the export volume pattern (Adjusted R² = 0.3122), with three turning points identified in the first-second quarter of 2015, the third quarter of 2019, and the first-second quarter of 2024. The regression results show that the export price of Indonesian cocofiber to China exerts a negative and significant effect on export volume, whereas the export price of Indian cocofiber to China and the total value of China's cocofiber imports from the world both exert a positive and significant effect. China's GDP and the Rupiah-USD exchange rate, meanwhile, show no significant influence.

Kata Kunci : cocofiber, daya saing, tren ekspor, Tiongkok, volume ekspor