Margin Harga Beras Sebelum dan Setelah Penghapusan Rafaksi Harga Gabah di Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta

Nadya Mangesti Wibowo, Arini Wahyu Utami, M.Sc., Ph.D.; Gilang Wirakusuma, S.P., M.Sc.; Muh Amat Nasir, S.P., M.Sc.

2026 | Skripsi | SOS.EK. PERTANIAN (AGROBISNIS)

Harga Pembelian Pemerintah (HPP) memiliki tujuan untuk melindungi petani melalui jaminan harga gabah, akan tetapi, penerapannya sebelumnya masih dibatasi oleh aturan rafaksi harga berdasarkan mutu sehingga banyak petani menjual hasil panennya kepada pihak lain di luar Bulog. Keputusan Badan Pangan Nasional Nomor 14 Tahun 2025 berpotensi mengubah mekanisme pembentukan harga gabah, beras, dan margin harga yang terbentuk di antara keduanya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1) menganalisis tren harga GKP, beras medium, dan margin harga beras agregat di Provinsi DIY, (2) menganalisis perbedaan harga GKP, harga beras medium, dan margin harga beras agregat di Provinsi DIY sebelum dan setelah penghapusan rafaksi harga, dan (3) mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi margin harga beras agregat di Provinsi DIY. Penelitian ini dilakukan secara purposive di Provinsi DIY dengan periode pengamatan Januari 2023-Desember 2025. Analisis tren dilakukan dengan polinomial, perbedaan diuji dengan Wilcoxon signed rank test dan statistik deskriptif, sementara faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi margin dianalisis dengan regresi linear berganda metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS). Hasil analisis tren menunjukkan bahwa harga GKP mengikuti pola kuartik dengan kecenderungan meningkat, harga beras medium mengikuti pola kubik dengan kecenderungan meningkat, dan margin harga beras agregat mengikuti pola kuartik dengan kecenderungan menurun. Hasil uji perbedaan menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan signifikan antara sebelum dan setelah penghapusan rafaksi harga, di mana harga GKP dan beras medium mengalami peningkatan, sedangkan margin harga beras agregat mengalami penurunan. Analisis faktor menunjukkan bahwa produksi gabah, harga beras ritel, harga daging ayam, dan harga bawang merah berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap margin harga beras agregat, sementara harga telur ayam, HPP, dan IHK tidak berpengaruh signifikan, serta secara khusus margin harga menurun pascapenghapusan aturan rafaksi.

The Government Purchase Price (HPP) is intended to protect farmers by guaranteeing the price of paddy. However, its implementation was previously constrained by quality-based price deductions, which may have encouraged farmers to sell their harvests to buyers other than BULOG. National Food Agency Decision No. 14 of 2025 has the potential to change the price formation mechanisms for paddy and rice, as well as the price margin between them. This study aimed to (1) analyze trends in the prices of harvested dry paddy (GKP), medium-grade rice, and aggregate rice price margins in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY); (2) analyze differences in GKP prices, medium-grade rice prices, and aggregate rice price margins in DIY before and after the elimination of quality-based price deductions; and (3) identify factors influencing aggregate rice price margins in DIY. The study was conducted purposively in DIY using monthly data from January 2023 to December 2025. Trend analysis was performed using polynomial regression, differences were examined using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and descriptive statistics, and factors influencing aggregate rice price margins were analyzed using multiple linear regression estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). The trend analysis showed that GKP prices followed a quartic pattern with an upward trend, medium-grade rice prices followed a cubic pattern with an upward trend, and aggregate rice price margins followed a quartic pattern with a downward trend. The difference tests showed significant differences in GKP prices, medium-grade rice prices, and aggregate rice price margins before and after the elimination of quality-based price deductions: GKP and medium-grade rice prices increased, whereas aggregate rice price margins decreased. The regression results showed that paddy production, retail rice prices, chicken meat prices, and shallot prices had positive and statistically significant effects on aggregate rice price margins, whereas chicken egg prices, the HPP, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had no statistically significant effects.

Kata Kunci : rafaksi harga gabah, harga pembelian pemerintah (HPP), margin harga beras