Studi Komparatif Tekno-Ekonomi Dedieselisasi melalui Optimasi Stokastik Sistem Hibrida Berbasis Mixed-Integer Linear Programming

Muhammad Fajru Rakha Nararya, Ahmad Agus Setiawan, S.T., M.Sc., Ph.D.

2026 | Skripsi | FISIKA TEKNIK

Ketergantungan pasokan listrik pada pembangkit termal di jaringan terisolasi 3T memicu tingginya biaya operasional dan emisi gas rumah kaca. PLTD Tua Pejat di Pulau Sipora mengonsumsi solar sebesar 4,46 juta liter/tahun dengan emisi 11.958,26 ton CO2/tahun. Penelitian ini bertujuan melakukan studi komparatif teknoekonomi program dedieselisasi melalui penentuan kapasitas dan strategi operasi optimal sistem hibrida PLTD-PLTS-BESS berbasis optimasi stokastik Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) terhadap sistem PLTD eksisting. Optimasi kapasitas dan penjadwalan operasi simultan dimodelkan berbasis Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) pada kerangka kerja oemof.solph. Ketidakpastian beban dan iradiasi surya diakomodasi melalui metode estimasi titik Hong (skema 2n + 1). Model menerapkan batas pembebanan minimum diesel 75%, pemenuhan reserve margin 35% PLN, serta evaluasi arus kas selama 20 tahun. Hasil optimasi menetapkan kapasitas PLTS sebesar 7.291,33 kWp dan BESS 17.314,73 kWh, serta memensiunkan 1.550 kW unit PLTD tua. Sistem hibrida menurunkan konsumsi solar sebesar 64,65%, menekan emisi menjadi 4.227,59 ton CO2/tahun, dan mencapai Renewable Fraction 64,65%. Total Net Present Cost (NPC) turun 52,21% menjadi Rp 858,18 Miliar dan LCOE turun 51,96% menjadi Rp 3.218,07/kWh dengan IRR 23,22% serta payback period 6,28 tahun.

Heavy reliance on fossil-based thermal generation in isolated island grids leads to high operational expenses and carbon emissions. The Tua Pejat diesel power plant on Sipora Island consumes 4.46 million liters of fuel annually, emitting 11,958.26 tons of CO2/year. This study aims to conduct a comparative techno-economic study of the dedieselization program through stochastic optimization of a hybrid PLTD-PV-BESS system based on Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) against the baseline diesel power plant. Simultaneous sizing and dispatch optimization is formulated via Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) within the oemof.solph framework. Load and solar irradiance uncertainties are addressed using Hong’s point estimate method (2n + 1 scheme). The formulation incorporates PLN’s 35% spinning reserve margin, nonconvex diesel loading with a 75% minimum threshold, and a 20-year multi-year cash flow projection. The results yield an optimal capacity of 7,291.33 kWp PV and 17,314.73 kWh BESS, decommissioning 1,550 kW of aging diesel units while retaining 1,250 kW. The hybrid transition reduces fuel consumption by 64.65%, cuts emissions to 4,227.59 tons CO2/year, and achieves a 64.65% Renewable Fraction. Total Net Present Cost decreases by 52.21% to IDR 858.18 billion and LCOE drops by 51.96% to IDR 3,218.07/kWh, with an IRR of 23.22% and a discounted payback period of 6.28 years.

Kata Kunci : Kata kunci: Studi Komparatif, Sistem Hibrida, Mixed-Integer Linear Programming, Metode Titik Hong, Dedieselisasi, Net Present Cost.